This episode covered the UFC Fight Night card headlined by Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas 2. Dave Simon, Fred Garcia, and AJ D’Alesio spent a good chunk of the show chatting about their picks, parlays, and what the future might hold for a few key fighters. There was also talk about the next big UFC pay-per-view event, where Islam Makhachev, Arman Tsarukyan, Umar Nurmagomedov, and Merab Dvalishvili will all step into the Octagon.
Enjoy the entire discussion, and remember you can catch our Thursday shows live or watch the replay on your favourite platform, or listen to the audio podcast.
Table of Contents
Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas 2 – The Main Event Discussion
Dave, Fred, and AJ Weigh In
“We’ve got a couple of fights to talk about. Mackenzie Dern is running for the E-Bus on Saturday.” – Dave Simon, opening the topic with a bit of a slip, calling Amanda Ribas “E-Bus.” He later confirmed it’s Amanda Ribas he meant.
“When they first met in 2019, Ribas won by decision. I think that’s probably where it goes here. I don’t think she finishes Mackenzie Dern.” – Dave Simon, directly calling on how he sees the fight unfolding a second time.
Dave pointed out that Ribas has a couple of losses on her record but is still a serious threat. According to him, she’s never been submitted, which is concerning for Dern, who thrives on armbar and choke finishes. Dave explained that Dern’s jiu-jitsu is among the best in the division, but there is a path to stall her out and take the fight to a decision.
Fred offered his perspective on how both women match up:
“Unfortunately also, like 31, I feel she’s at the end of her MMA career… but yeah, Rebas is also three and four in her last seven fights. She lost to Rose, Chookagian, and Maycee Barber—those are good fighters. I think Rebas pulls it off.” – Fred Garcia.
Fred’s view is that Dern has shown some inconsistency. Though Dern’s ground game is world-class, her takedowns can be limited, especially against someone with the grappling chops to avoid easy submissions.
AJ chimed in with a mix of numbers and emotion:
“I’m like a huge Mackenzie Dern supporter… but she’s 3-4 since 2019. When you look at Rebas, she’s the bigger, better striker and a better wrestler. It will be a tough fight for Mackenzie.” – AJ D’Alesio.
AJ let everyone know he might be stepping away from betting on Dern. He also mentioned that this fight could be part of Dern’s final run in the UFC if it goes poorly.
Audience Thoughts on Dern vs. Ribas
Though most of the live chat was focused on other topics, the general sense was that this main event has some tension because both women have had hot-and-cold runs. Fred and Dave emphasized the possibility of a decision rather than a finish, and the audience seemed to agree in chat messages.
Final Picks from the Hosts
- Dave Simon: Amanda Ribas, by decision
- Fred Garcia: Amanda Ribas, by decision
- AJ D’Alesio: Amanda Ribas, by decision
Co-Main Event and the Undercard Parlays
Carlson Harris vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
Dave decided to include the Carlson Harris vs. Ponzinibbio fight in his three-fight parlay, even though he acknowledged it was risky. He said:
“I’m going with Harris Carlson as a slight underdog plus 110 to beat Santiago Ponzinibio. That’s the co-main event. I like Harris Carlson to win that one.” – Dave Simon.
Fred took a different approach:
“I’ll help you not work too hard tonight because my parlay is simply Kapilov and Ribas… I’m leaving Harris off.” – Fred Garcia.
AJ also mentioned how he prefers to avoid this match:
“I’m surprised you went with Harris, man… nothing impressive from that guy for me to put him in a parlay. I’m going to step back from that one.” – AJ D’Alesio
Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov
Roman Kopylov vs. Chris Curtis was another highlight. Dave likes Kopylov, calling him a strong pick at -250. Fred also opted for Kopylov in his smaller parlay. AJ was enthusiastic about how this fight probably deserved co-main status:
“Why wasn’t Roman and Curtis the co-main? It only makes sense. Honestly, I think that should have been the co-main.” – AJ D’Alesi.o
AJ and Dave both believe that Kopylov has the technical striking edge and that Curtis—while experienced—might struggle against him.
AJ’s Five-Fight Parlay Picks
AJ is known on the show for big parlays. He laid out a five-fight pick for UFC Fight Night Dern vs. Ribas 2. His parlay is:
- Amanda Ribas (over Mackenzie Dern)
- Roman Kopylov (over Chris Curtis)
- Austin Bashi (debuting fighter who’s 13-0)
- Uros Medic (known for a 100% finishing rate)
- Cesar Almeida (to beat Abdul Razak Alhassan)
AJ said:
“I’m actually adding another one, Uros Medic… 100 percent finishing rate. How can you go wrong with this guy?” – AJ D’Alesio
Dave quickly calculated the odds and said:
“That’s a plus 456 parlay from Team AJ.” – Dave Simon.
Fred gave a more restrained approach with a smaller parlay, choosing only Amanda Ribas and Roman Kopylov:
“My parlay is a couple off and Rebas, so I’m keeping it simple.” – Fred Garcia.
Meanwhile, Dave stuck with a three-fight parlay of Harris Carlson, Amanda Ribas, and Roman Kopylov. He placed them at +341 odds, which would pay out $88.20 on a $20 bet.
The Next UFC Pay-Per-View – Big Fights at UFC 311
Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan
The panel spent time previewing UFC 311, which will happen next week. The big news is the lightweight title bout between Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan. Dave was especially excited about Tsarukyan’s shape leading into the fight:
“Guys, you see that picture of Tsarukyan looking crazy jacked? Let me tell you. I think he’s going to do it.” – Dave Simon
He hinted that he might pick Tsarukyan for an upset. However, Dave also recognized how good Makhachev is, and Fred agreed that Islam remains the favourite. AJ had some fun with it:
“Armenian beast, man. This guy… well, it’s Islam, man.” – AJ D’Alesio, showing that he’s torn since Makhachev is so dominant, but Tsarukyan is no joke.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Another massive fight for the bantamweight title is lined up for UFC 311. Umar Nurmagomedov, known for his grappling skills and footwork, faces Merab Dvalishvili. Dave sees this as a top-level scrap:
“Umar is also incredible. I might pick Umar. I might be wrong picking against Merab again, but Umar may be even more dangerous.” – Dave Simon.
Fred believes Merab’s constant pressure could be the difference, but he respects Umar’s wrestling. The crew recognized that the winner will be nearly impossible to ignore in the bantamweight division.
More Featured Bouts at UFC 311
- Yuri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill: Fred and AJ both said they like Yuri for the victory. “I like Yuri. Yuri Smash.” – Dave Simon
- Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano: The group discussed how Dariush had his peak a couple of years ago and might be on the way down, whereas Moicano has been looking better.
- “Moicano is going this way, and Dariush is going that way. Perfect time for Moicano.” – Dave Simon
- Kevin Holland vs. Reinier De Ridder: Dave admitted he doesn’t know enough about Reinier yet but hinted that he might pick De Ridder if forced to choose.
The Jon Jones and Tom Aspinall Rumours
Dave also gave a quick tidbit about a rumour that Jon Jones was asking for 30 million dollars to fight Tom Aspinall, then said:
“Dana White told Joe Rogan that’s not true… probably a BS rumour. Jon Jones is likely done.” – Dave Simon
Fred responded with:
“It will happen.” – Fred Garcia, insisting that Jones and Aspinall might clash down the road, although Dave disagreed.
Live Audience MMA Chatter
The show had its usual live crowd on YouTube, Rumble, Twitch, and Kick. Most of the chat revolved around jokes and wrestling, but a few messages about MMA slipped in:
- Juice Man 562 hopped in to say:
“All I know is that Sean O’Malley and Tim Welch drink ducknut… that means no more O’Salley being champ and I love it.”
He doesn’t like Sean O’Malley, calling him “O’Salley” to mock him. Dave had a brief reply to that: “I kind of wanted O’Malley to have success because he seemed popular, but you gotta keep winning.” – Dave Simon - Patrick C. Hamilton dropped a Super Chat with “25.25 for 2025” to support the channel. He didn’t share a specific MMA opinion, but the crew thanked him and recognized the importance of audience support.
The hosts reminded everyone to watch the next show live or catch the replay if they miss it. They also told folks they could find the audio podcast anywhere they listen to their favourite shows.
Key Takeaways
- Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas 2: The hosts predict a decision victory for Ribas, given her previous win and stable takedown defence.
- Dave’s Three-Fighter Parlay: Amanda Ribas, Harris Carlson, Roman Kopylov.
- Fred’s Two-Fighter Parlay: Amanda Ribas, Roman Kopylov.
- AJ’s Five-Fight Parlay: Amanda Ribas, Roman Kopylov, Austin Bashi, Uros Medic, Cesar Almeida.
- UFC 311: Two big title fights with Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan and Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Merab Dvalishvili headline the next pay-per-view. The panel is split on possible upsets, but Makhachev and Nurmagomedov remain the favourites.
- John Jones Rumours: Dave believes the Aspinall fight likely won’t happen, while Fred keeps hope alive.
A Quick Wrap-Up
UFC Fight Night Dern vs. Ribas 2 might not be the flashiest card on paper, but the main event has a solid backstory. Dern’s jiu-jitsu excellence collides with Ribas’ all-around skill. Most of the crew expects Ribas to get her hand raised again by decision. They’re making picks and crafting parlays on the rest of the card, with names like Roman Kopylov, Cesar Almeida, and Uros Medic popping up as solid bets.
The next big card, UFC 311, brings major title fights that promise to shape the lightweight and bantamweight divisions. Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan has Dave leaning toward a wild upset, while Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Merab Dvalishvili has the crew buzzing. If you want to follow the action, join us for our next broadcast, or catch the replay on YouTube, Rumble, Twitch, Kick, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
