The biggest lightweight title fight of 2025 is almost here. UFC 317 brings us a vacant championship bout between former featherweight king Ilia Topuria and submission specialist Charles Oliveira this Saturday night. With Islam Makhachev moving up to welterweight, the 155-pound division gets a fresh start with two elite fighters ready to claim the throne.
Dave Simon and AJ D’Alesio broke down every angle of this massive card during their latest episode, diving deep into fight predictions, betting picks, and what this means for the lightweight division’s future. From Topuria’s knockout power to Oliveira’s submission game, plus a stacked undercard featuring flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja, this International Fight Week event delivers serious fireworks.
The hosts didn’t hold back with their analysis of the main event, discussing everything from Topuria’s undefeated record to questions about Oliveira’s age and recent performance. Here’s what the Ringside Report crew had to say about Saturday’s action.
UFC 317 Main Event Analysis: Topuria’s Moment vs Oliveira’s Experience
The Case for Ilia Topuria
The undefeated Georgian-Spanish fighter enters as the betting favorite at -425, and the hosts understand why. Topuria’s devastating 2024 campaign included knockout victories over two of the greatest featherweights of all time, Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway.
“16 and 0 man, and I was looking at some of the stats, you know, like this guy is one of 14 fighters to win an undisputed UFC title with an undefeated record,” AJ D’Alesio noted during the episode. “The guy is unbelievable, there’s no doubt about it.”
At 28 years old, Topuria represents the new generation of complete mixed martial artists. His finishing ability across all areas—striking, grappling, and fight IQ—has consistently impressed the hosts. Dave Simon highlighted the bigger picture potential for the Spanish-based fighter.
“If he chases Islam up to 170, that would be something else, being the champ at 145 going up to 55. If he could win this, he’d technically be the champ at 55,” Simon explained. “And if Islam beats de la Madelena which I think he could not to say he would but he could I could see Topuria moving up and fighting Islam at 170 and rolling the dice there and who’s to say he couldn’t beat him and you know become a three division champion which no one in the history of sport has ever done.”
The possibility of a three-division champion has never been achieved in UFC history, making this weekend’s fight potentially historic, not just for crowning a new lightweight king.
Charles Oliveira’s Veteran Wisdom and Concerns
Despite being a significant underdog at +305, “Chucky Olives” brings serious credentials to this title fight. The hosts acknowledged his record-setting UFC career and legendary finishing ability.
“Chucky Olives has the most stoppage victories in the UFC; he has 20, and he has the most submission wins in the UFC at 16,” AJ explained. “So the possibilities of winning by submission are up there, Chucky leads the pack, man.”
However, age and recent wear dominated much of the discussion around the Brazilian veteran. At 35 years old, questions about Oliveira’s remaining prime years became a central theme.
“That’s what I’m saying, man, it’s like he’s 35 years old, bud, and you’re fighting against Toporia, who’s probably considered the best fighter in the game right now in the world at 28 years old,” AJ continued. “The wear and tear was what I’m trying to say when you get fights like with Islam and and and and even Michael Chandler man like you know that was a war man it’s tough and you’re going up against Ilya Toporia the guy is probably you know you know he’s the most dangerous guy in MMA right now.”
The hosts credited Oliveira’s incredible journey from nearly being cut from the UFC to becoming champion, but questioned whether Father Time has caught up with the submission specialist.
Fight Dynamics and Stylistic Breakdown
The stylistic matchup presents fascinating questions that the hosts explored in detail. Topuria’s knockout power versus Oliveira’s submission threat creates multiple paths to victory for both men.
Dave Simon noted the specific betting angle that makes sense for an Oliveira upset: “I think Chucky, if you’re gonna bet Chucky, like just my hunch on it would be to bet submission because I think that’s how he would win.”
At +625 for Oliveira by submission, the value exists for those who believe the Brazilian can rediscover his vintage form. The hosts emphasized that while Topuria is the most likely outcome by knockout, at -170, MMA’s unpredictable nature means that anything can happen.
Co-Main Event: Pantoja Defends Against Familiar Foe
Pantoja’s Flyweight Dominance
Alexandre Pantoja puts his flyweight championship on the line at UFC 317 against former interim title challenger Kai Kara-France in a rematch from their Ultimate Fighter meeting in 2016. The hosts showed strong confidence in the Brazilian champion’s ability to repeat his previous victory.
“I can’t see Kara-France like taking this over Pantoja, I think Pantoja has everything you need from experience, you know, just cardio, his power, everything to be able to beat Kara-France,” AJ stated. “You’re looking at Pantoja 29 and five.”
The experience edge heavily favors Pantoja, who has established himself as one of the UFC’s most reliable champions. His improvements in cardio, power, and technique since their first meeting make him a solid favorite at -250.
“He’s solid, man, he’s like the kid’s made out of steel, I mean it’s gonna be hard for Kycara,” AJ added, emphasizing Pantoja’s durability and pace.
Kara-France’s Comeback Story
The New Zealand fighter enters UFC 317 as a +190 underdog, but brings his momentum after a TKO victory over Steve Erceg. At 32 years old, this represents likely his final shot at UFC gold, adding extra motivation to the equation.
The nine-year gap since their first meeting means both fighters have evolved significantly, though the hosts believe Pantoja’s championship experience gives him the decisive edge.
UFC 317 Fight Predictions and Betting Strategies
Team Dave’s Conservative Approach
Dave Simon kept his betting strategy focused and confident, building a two-fight parlay around his strongest convictions for Saturday night.
“I’m giving you 20 gets you 46 19 over a bet 99.com it’s a team dave parlay toporia muy cano seems simple enough it does,” he announced.
The Team Dave parlay includes:
- Ilia Topuria to win (-425)
- Renato Moicano over Beneil Dariush (-115)
Simon expressed serious concerns about Dariush’s current state and motivation level heading into this fight.
“Dariush, 36 years old, has lost two in a row after winning several in a row, but then in 2023, something he lost two in a row, and looked like the bottom dropped out, got smashed by Charles Oliveira in the first round, then got smashed by Armin Sorukyan in the first round,” Dave explained. “I think he’s coming back to get a paycheck, I don’t know, I don’t know, I don’t know, the last time we saw him was against Arman Tsarukyan coming in on short notice.”
AJ’s Aggressive Four-Fight Gamble
AJ D’Alesio went bigger with his UFC 317 parlay, adding two more fights to create a potential $114.41 payout on a $20 bet.
“I’m going to go a little bit further because there’s one guy that stands out,” AJ explained before revealing his complete card:
- Ilia Topuria over Charles Oliveira
- Alexandre Pantoja over Kai Kara-France
- Joshua Van over Brandon Royval
- Renato Moicano over Beneil Dariush
The most intriguing pick was Joshua Van, a 23-year-old stepping in on short notice to replace Manel Kape against the experienced Brandon Royval.
“This young kid man, he’s 23 years old, he fought three weeks ago, super impressive man, excellent boxing man, crazy knockout power, this kid, you know,” AJ said about Van. “He has everything to be the next big thing, so I’m going with Joshua, Joshua Van.”
Despite Van being favored at -130, Dave Simon expressed skepticism about the short-notice replacement beating a veteran like Royval, who sits at +100 as the underdog.
Moicano vs Dariush: The Sure Thing?
Both hosts agreed that Renato Moicano over Beneil Dariush represented their most confident pick of the entire card. The even-money line surprised them, given the contrasting trajectories of both fighters.
“Are you not surprised it’s coming in at a pick ’em fight, it’s even money,” Dave asked, with AJ agreeing the line seemed off.
Dariush’s age (36), recent losses, and talk about retirement concerned both hosts. Meanwhile, Moicano’s recent performance against Islam Makhachev on short notice showed he remains in fighting form despite the loss.
I guess we’ll never know. 🎤 https://t.co/uC5J14lla7
— Jonny Meat (@JonnyBones) June 27, 2025
Jon Jones’ Retirement Drama and Heavyweight Division Analysis
Skepticism About Jones’ “Retirement”
The hosts spent considerable time discussing Jon Jones’ recent retirement announcement, with both expressing grave doubts about its permanence.
“I don’t buy it either, man, no, I don’t buy it,” AJ responded when Dave questioned the legitimacy of Jones stepping away. “I don’t think Stipe was his last fight.”
Dave Simon broke down the strategic reasoning behind Jones’ decision to vacate rather than truly retire.
“You know he didn’t feel like fighting Tom Aspinall right now because he didn’t want to be the champion defending against the next number one contender again, he didn’t want to go through the meat grinder of what that is all about,” Simon explained. “Because honestly, I think if you had fought Tom Aspinall and beat Tom Aspinall, people would have been like What about this guy? What about that guy?”
The conversation revealed how Jones remains under UFC contract, making any actual retirement complicated from a business perspective. Both hosts believe Jones is simply stepping aside temporarily.
Heavyweight Championship History and Aspinall’s Challenge
The discussion evolved into an analysis of UFC heavyweight title defenses and why the division changes hands so frequently. Dave provided historical context that illuminated the challenge facing Tom Aspinall.
“Steepay has the most title defenses in the history of the UFC heavyweight division, I think it’s like three or four, it’s not much,” he explained. “That belt does not hang around anybody, so if you think Tom Aspinall is going to go on a big, big run, I mean it’s gonna be tricky.”
The hosts detailed how even legendary heavyweight champions like Cain Velasquez only managed two title defenses, while Stipe Miocic’s four defenses across two reigns represent the division’s gold standard.
“Francis had a good run going. Francis won the heavyweight title, defended against Ciryl Gane, but then you know, left, so you never really know,” Dave continued, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of heavyweight competition.
This context led to speculation about whether Aspinall can establish a lengthy reign and whether that success might lure Jones back for a superfight.
Brazilian Fighters and Global Championship Representation
The Decline of Brazilian Dominance
An interesting tangent emerged about Brazilian representation among current UFC champions. The hosts noted how dramatically the landscape has changed from the sport’s earlier days, when Brazilian fighters dominated multiple divisions.
“That’s where it all comes from, that’s the home of MMA, but they only have one champion right now,” Dave observed.
Currently, only Alexandre Pantoja holds UFC gold for Brazil, a stark contrast to periods when Brazilian fighters simultaneously held titles across weight classes. The conversation highlighted the sport’s international evolution.
“There are as many Brazilian champions in the UFC as there are British champions in the UFC, crazy, there are as many Brazilian champions in the UFC as there are New Zealand champions. No, um, Australian champions or South African champions,” Dave noted.
The current championship landscape features fighters from Georgia (potentially two, with Topuria), Dagestan, Australia, South Africa, China, Kyrgyzstan, and the United States holding titles. Only Kayla Harrison represents the United States as a champion.
“Kayla Harrison, the only American champion in the UFC, what happened to look at that Brazilian?” Dave said, expressing surprise at the scarcity of American-born champions currently existing.
UFC’s Current Rebuild Phase and Future Direction
Waiting for Big Fights to Materialize
The hosts expressed frustration with the UFC’s current approach to booking marquee matchups, suggesting the promotion is in a rebuild phase.
“Doesn’t it feel like the UFC is in a rebuild right now, like if the UFC were a sports team, 2024 and 2025 I think are rebuild years, and 2026 and maybe 2027 is when you start to cash in,” Dave Simon suggested.
The delayed booking of fights, such as Khamzat Chimaev vs. Robert Whittaker, exemplified their concerns about the promotion’s pacing.
“It’s disappointing because that would have been sick, right now that would have been a big fight, it’s a missed opportunity for sure, like you can’t deny it, promotionally it’s a missed opportunity not to do the Islam vs. Topuria fight this year,” Dave said about the failure to book Topuria vs. Makhachev.
Setting Up Future Storylines
Despite current frustrations, both hosts acknowledged that UFC 317’s results could reshape several divisional landscapes. Topuria’s potential path to multiple championships, questions about Jones’ return, and the heavyweight title picture all hinge on the outcomes of Saturday’s events.
The lightweight division particularly stands at a crossroads. A Topuria victory opens discussions about super fights with Makhachev at welterweight, while an Oliveira upset would create an entirely different set of possibilities.
