UFC 327 Predictions: Procházka, Murzakanov, and the Hokitt Problem

Miami is getting a new UFC light heavyweight champion on Saturday — and UFC 327 predictions are flying from every direction. Jiří Procházka and Carlos Ulberg fight for the vacant belt Alex Pereira walked away from to chase heavyweight history. Azamat Murzakanov gets his most high-profile test against Paulo Costa in the co-main. Josh Hokitt brings his NFL-reject-turned-heavyweight-chaos energy against Curtis Blaydes. And Cub Swanson fights his career’s final round after 22 years as a professional. On Thursday’s Ringside Report MMA, Dave Simon and AJ D’Alesio broke down every fight on the card — and this is a card that delivers top to bottom.

The UFC 327 predictions coming out of Thursday’s show lean toward a Procházka coronation and a Murzakanov demolition — but AJ is riding a five-fight parlay that includes Josh Hokitt knocking out Curtis Blaydes, which could be the upset that blows the card wide open. Dave and AJ split in two fights. The disagreements are where the real money hides. Join Dave, Fred, and AJ for the live watch-along Saturday at 9 PM ET at youtube.com/live/0CBuw1Wz2JU as the main card kicks off from the Kaseya Center in Miami.

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The UFC Gave Josh Hokitt a Platform — And Dave Simon Has Thoughts

Before any UFC 327 predictions, there is the Josh Hokitt problem. Hokitt, a former 49ers practice squad player turned heavyweight prospect, has been running a pro wrestler gimmick — rambling, trash-talking, dropping into an exaggerated character voice at press conferences and backstage confrontations — and the UFC has been amplifying every second of it. He got in Jiří Procházka and Carlos Ulberg’s faces during fight week despite fighting at heavyweight, a weight class they do not compete in. He is 8-0, and every opponent on his résumé is anonymous. Eric Lunsford. John Lopez. Denzel Freeman. Max Jimenez. Nobody you could name without a search engine.

Dave’s read on Hokitt was unambiguous: “I don’t like this Hokitt style. I don’t like the UFC pushing it. It lowers the value of the sport.” He pointed to a post-fight promo where Hokitt said something transphobic, adding to concerns about what exactly the organization is choosing to platform. The issue is not just that Hokitt’s act is derivative — it is that the UFC is treating it as star-making content when it is closer to noise. Dave has a name for him: Josh Hokie. And he is not saying it as a compliment.

“The perception of MMA is in the toilet right now. And I remember where we once were and where we’ve gone. It’s just sad to see the UFC promoting this type of joke.” — Dave Simon, Ringside Report MMA

Blaydes vs. Hokitt — Wrestling Strategy vs. Raw Explosivity

The actual fight, though, is worth watching. Curtis Blaydes is 19-5, has been in the UFC top 10 for years, and holds wins over Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Junior dos Santos, Mark Hunt, and Rizvan Kuniev. His five losses are all by knockout — Francis Ngannou twice, Derrick Lewis, Sergei Pavlovich, and Tom Aspinall. Blaydes is a legitimate, seasoned heavyweight. Hokitt, whatever you think of his presentation, has 8 finishes in 8 fights and punching power that AJ described as rhinoceros-level.

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The betting line reflects genuine uncertainty: Blaydes -125, Hokitt -105. Oddsmakers are not sure what to make of this. Dave’s strategic breakdown was clear: “If the fight is boring, Blaydes probably won. If the fight is exciting, Hokitt probably won. Blaydes needs to shoot a takedown, lay on top, and win on points. Win ugly. Win boring.” The problem, AJ argued, is that Blaydes arrived at the press conference already rattled. “I saw Blades walking away. You can see he’s burning. When you get frustrated, you don’t think logically. That’s what Hokitt wants — he wants a slugfest, and that’s going to be the demise of Blaydes.” Dave acknowledged the risk: Blaydes has been knocked out by the best heavyweights alive, and Hokitt’s chin has never been tested. The wear and tear is all on one side of this fight.

UFC 327 Predictions — Procházka vs. Ulberg for the Vacant Light Heavyweight Title

The headline fight in these UFC 327 predictions is as straightforward as it gets on paper, and as complicated as it gets in practice. Jiří Procházka, 32 years old, 32-5-1, is a former UFC light heavyweight champion and the inaugural Rizin Light Heavyweight Champion. His only losses inside the Octagon have come against Alex Pereira — the only man on earth with the kind of power that can genuinely put Procházka down. He owns wins over Glover Teixeira, Alexander Rakić, Jamal Hill, and, most recently, Khalil Rountree, whom he knocked out at UFC 320 last October. His gas tank is unquestioned. His durability under fire is legendary. And his finish rate is 97%.

AJ laid it out on Thursday: “This guy lives and dies by the sword. He’s a true mixed martial artist. I’ve seen him training with a samurai sword. He’s got everything you could think of. And he’s so smart. He might have a slow start, but he walks through shots, and he finishes. He has that 97% finish rate for a reason.” Dave added the emotional dimension: “Yuri is one of the most fun guys to watch in the UFC. He’s been around the block. He’s fought for titles. He is always interesting. He’s a made man in the UFC. If you’re a UFC fan and you’re not down with Yuri Procházka, I don’t know what you’re looking for.”

Carlos Ulberg — Measured Challenger in a Tornado

Carlos Ulberg enters at 13-1, 35 years old, out of New Zealand — a composed, polished kickboxer who has gone undefeated since his UFC debut loss and strung together wins over Volkan Oezdemir, Jan Blachowicz, and Dominick Reyes. He is not Procházka, either as a personality or as a star. This is his first pay-per-view main event. But the fight is not about star power — and Ulberg brings legitimate tools. He is a patient counter-puncher who picks his spots and does not waste movement. AJ’s concern: “He likes to hang back and wait for counter punches. I don’t think it’s going to be enough for Yuri, especially with a kickboxer like Yuri who throws everything from everywhere.”

Dave’s assessment was measured but clear: “Carlos is a little more polished. He’s got a hell of a chin. He hits hard. But it’s like fighting a tornado for 25 minutes. If Carlos plays this fight correctly, he could win — he’s going to have to be very sharp the whole time. But I think Yuri just finds a way.” The pick from both hosts: Procházka, the winner of the vacant UFC light heavyweight championship.

Reality Check: A Vacant Title Still Makes a Champion — But the Asterisk Is Real

The Reality: Alex Pereira vacated the light heavyweight title to fight Cyril Gane for the interim heavyweight championship. That means whoever wins Saturday becomes champion without ever beating the previous titleholder. Dave acknowledged it on air: “There are very few regular championship fights these days. Here’s a vacant championship, and then we’re going to have an interim championship.” It matters — not as a knock on Procházka or Ulberg, but as a broader comment on how the UFC has turned title fights into checkers when they used to be chess. One of these men will wear the belt on Saturday. The asterisk is not their fault. But it exists.

Azamat Murzakanov Is the Scariest Man at 205 — Paulo Costa Is About to Learn That

If Procházka wins the main event, the next logical challenger is sitting in the co-main. Azamat Murzakanov is 16-0, has had a knockdown in all seven of his UFC fights, and knocked out Alexander Rakić — a legitimate top contender — with a single jab in the first round. The man is undefeated, unfinished, and produces the kind of highlight-reel violence that makes a 205-pound title reign look inevitable. Dave has been sold: “Murzakanov is a big fan of mine. If Murzakanov wins — which I think he will — I’d like to see Murzakanov versus the winner of Yuri and Carlos for the belt.”

AJ went further. His comparison was Fedor Emelianenko — the gold standard for scary Russian heavyweights. “He’s got the calmness of Fedor. He’s got that power. He’s got that Russian scaryness where you look at him and think, alright, something bad is about to happen.” At the press conference, Costa — known for one of the most electric trash-talk games in the sport — was loud, tanned, well-built, and running his mouth at full volume. Murzakanov’s translator responded with one assessment: “This guy is so nervous. He can’t do anything but talk trash right now.” AJ’s take: “He’s right. It’s flight-or-fight, and he couldn’t fight, so he talked.”

Costa has two wins in his last six fights. He is 37 years old. He still has moments — but Murzakanov is -210 for a reason. Both Dave and AJ expect a Murzakanov finish, and this fight lands in both of their parlay selections for Saturday. The pick is Murzakanov by knockout.

Dominick Reyes vs. Johnny Walker — The Weight of What Almost Was

The Ringside Report’s take on Dominick Reyes vs. Johnny Walker is one of the most emotionally layered UFC 327 predictions of the night, because it requires understanding where Reyes has been. He was 12-0 when he fought Jon Jones for the title — a fight most observers scored for Reyes through the first four rounds. He lost a unanimous decision. He then fought Jan Blachowicz for the vacant title and was finished in the second round. He fought Procházka next and was finished in the second round. He fought Ryan Spann after that and was finished in the first round. Three straight knockout losses after coming an inch from the championship.

Then he came back. Beat Dustin Jacoby by KO. Beat Anthony Smith by KO. Beat Nikita Krylov by KO — a legitimate upset. Earned a fight with Carlos Ulberg, in Ulberg’s home country of New Zealand, in Ulberg’s fight night main event. And got knocked out in the first round. Now Ulberg is fighting for the belt, and Reyes is on this card as a gatekeeper fight against Johnny Walker (+120). Dave laid it out plainly: “If Dominick Reyes had defeated Carlos Ulberg in his last fight, it would be Dominick Reyes fighting Yuri Procházka for the title tonight. I don’t know if the light has gone a little bit for Reyes. He’s 36. At the bottom, climbed back to the top, was on the cusp of a title shot — and now he’s trying to climb the ladder again while the guy who just knocked him out is fighting for the belt.”

Both hosts pick Johnny Walker, who showed up to the press conference looking healthy, confident, and relaxed. AJ noticed the contrast: “I didn’t see any fire in Dominick Reyes. Johnny Walker said he’s coming here to perform. And he’s going to.” Walker is +120. Reyes is -150. The pick is Walker, and Dave would not be surprised if the finish comes early.

Cub Swanson’s Last Dance — 22 Years and One Final Fight

Cub Swanson has been fighting professionally since 2004. He fought in the WEC starting in 2007 before the promotion was absorbed by the UFC. He was on the UFC’s first Fox card — UFC on Fox 1, De La Hoya vs. Dos Santos, November 2011 — and has never really stopped competing since. He is 42 years old. He is fighting Nate Landwehr as his retirement bout. And both Dave Simon and AJ D’Alesio want to see him go out with his hand raised.

The spot for Cub is favorable. Landwehr is -120, making Swanson the slight underdog at -110, but Landwehr has lost three of his last four — including two in a row by knockout. He throws volume with reckless abandon, which gives a seasoned veteran like Swanson openings. Dave’s breakdown: “Keep it nice and boring. You’re not going to win any fans, but you will win the fight. Take him down. Lie on top. Win a round. Repeat.” Coming off a knockout win over Billy Quarantillo, Swanson showed he still has finishing power. A career that spans 22 years and includes some of the most exciting featherweight fights the UFC has ever seen deserves the kind of sendoff where the veteran walks out with a W. Both hosts picked him to get it.

Prelims Deep Enough for a Fight Night — Pitbull, Pico, and the Full Card

The preliminary card for UFC 327 is the kind of lineup that would have headlined a Fight Night three years ago. Patricio Pitbull (38, formerly of Bellator, now in the UFC) takes on Aaron Pico (29, also formerly of Bellator) in a featherweight bout that would have been a major Bellator main event. They never fought in Bellator. Now they settle it in the UFC, where Pico is a -280 favorite off a knockout loss to La’Ron Murphy in his UFC debut. Did Dave not buy the line: “Pico got smoked in his first UFC fight, and now he’s a massive favorite? I’m going with Pitbull.” Pitbull is +210. AJ went with Pico — age, the learning curve of a debut, and the belief that Pico’s Bellator form will resurface.

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics rounds out the prelim picture at lightweight, while Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown gives the prelim card a genuine welterweight fight worth watching. The prelim main event — Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godinez in women’s strawweight — is where Dave found his third parlay leg. Suarez is a dominant wrestler who finishes fights, and she lands in Dave’s three-fight parlay on the strength of that finish rate.

AJ D’Alesio’s UFC 327 Picks — Fred Garcia Joins Saturday’s Watch-Along

Fred Garcia was not on Thursday’s preview show — but he will be live on the UFC 327 watch-along Saturday at 9 PM ET, where his picks and predictions for the card will be front and center alongside Dave and AJ. Head to youtube.com/live/0CBuw1Wz2JU on Saturday to see Fred’s full card breakdown in real time as the fights unfold from Miami.

AJ’s five-fight parlay for UFC 327 is the most aggressive bet of the night. Here is exactly where he stands on every fight discussed Thursday:

UFC 327 Parlay Picks — Dave Simon vs. AJ D’Alesio

The parlay segment produced two very different approaches to the same card. Dave went conservative — three fights, all favorites, solid return. AJ went five fights deep and included the Hokitt upset, which is where the real money lives if he is right.

Dave’s three-fight parlay finds value in favorites with legitimate finishing ability rather than grinding decisions. Procházka is a violent finisher. Murzakanov has ended every UFC fight with a knockdown or finish. Tatiana Suarez is a dominant wrestler who finishes opponents. The parlay is clean, coherent, and pays nearly five times your money. AJ’s parlay adds Walker and Swanson for value — Walker at +120 is legitimately priced too low if AJ’s press conference read is right — then throws Hokitt into the mix as the wild card that could turn $20 into a night out.

“If the fight is fun to watch, Hokitt won. If the fight is real boring, Blaydes probably won. Blaydes needs to keep this fight nice and boring — win ugly, win boring. You’re not going to win any fans, but you will win the fight.” — Dave Simon, Ringside Report MMA

Watch the UFC 327 Watch-Along Live on Saturday

Dave Simon, Fred Garcia, and AJ D’Alesio will be live on YouTube Saturday, April 11, at 9 PM ET for the UFC 327 main card watch-along. It is the full crew together for the first time in a while, and with a card this deep — a vacant light heavyweight title, Murzakanov hunting, Blaydes walking into a potential ambush, and Cub Swanson’s farewell — there is no shortage of moments to react to. Head to youtube.com/live/0CBuw1Wz2JU and drop your UFC 327 predictions in the chat before the first punch is thrown.