The Ringside Report MMA crew—Dave Simon, AJ D’Alesio, and Fred Garcia—gathered on Thursday night to preview this weekend’s UFC 321 card in Abu Dhabi, and if you’re looking for bold predictions, betting insights, and brutally honest analysis mixed with some genuinely hilarious banter, they delivered in spades.
The episode had an unusually lighthearted vibe, starting with an extended discussion about sugar daddies (the candy store chain, people), Dave’s Nike SB fashion show complete with green Yeezys, and his son’s adorable mid-show interruption to remind everyone to “subscribe, like, leave a comment.” But once the UFC talk got rolling, the trio brought their trademark analytical approach to what promises to be one of the year’s most compelling cards.
UFC 321 Main Event: Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane for the Heavyweight Title
The heavyweight championship headlines UFC 321 as Tom Aspinall defends his undisputed title against former interim champion Ciryl Gane. After Jon Jones‘ retirement earlier this year, Aspinall finally has the recognition he deserves—but Gane presents a stylistic nightmare.
The hosts had discussed this matchup extensively in previous weeks, with Dave particularly intrigued by the potential for an upset. “Man, if Aspinall loses next weekend, it’s going to be so funny. Jon Jones will laugh forever. Everybody’s saying he’s ducking Aspinall. If Ciryl Gane, the man that Jon Jones stopped in what, like 90 seconds… If Gane turns around and beats Aspinall next weekend, oh my god, that’ll be funny,” Dave had predicted last week. “I think it might happen, too.”
The French kickboxer’s technical striking and movement give him a real path to victory, despite Aspinall’s devastating knockout power. As Dave noted, “It’s hard not to pick Aspinall. He’s looking great. It’s hard not to take Aspinall. However, Ciryl is competent. He’s capable of winning the fight. You know what I mean? Aspinall is probably the favorite to win. Probably the safer pick. But Cyril could easily win that fight, especially at heavyweight.”
Fred had raised concerns about Gane’s recent activity, noting his split decision over Alexander Volkov back in December 2024 was controversial. “I remember I think people, a lot of people had Volkov winning, even Dana White had Volkov winning, if I remember correctly, after the fight,” Fred recalled.
Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida: Title Eliminator in the Co-Main
Speaking of Volkov, the Russian veteran gets a massive opportunity in the UFC 321 co-main event against the surging Jailton Almeida. This heavyweight bout could determine the next title challenger, assuming Aspinall retains against Gane.
Volkov’s technical striking and 6’7″ frame make him a complex puzzle for anyone, while Almeida’s suffocating grappling and submission game have earned him the nickname “Malhadinho” (Little Skinny One). The stylistic clash promises fireworks—either Volkov keeps it standing and picks Almeida apart, or Almeida drags him into deep water and drowns him.
The UFC 321 Betting Picks: AJ Goes All-In on Favorites
While Dave and Fred kept their cards close to their chest for UFC 321, AJ revealed his parlay strategy—and it’s about as chalk as it gets.
AJ’s Five-Fight Parlay
AJ went straight down the line with the favored fighters:
- Tom Aspinall over Ciryl Gane
- Mackenzie Dern over Virna Jandiroba
- Umar Nurmagomedov over Mario Bautista
- Alexander Volkov over Jailton Almeida
- Azamat Murzakanov over Aleksandar Rakić (referred to as “Asmat” by the hosts)
“Pretty much all favorites except Volkov,” Dave summarized, though he seemed skeptical of loading up so heavily on chalk. AJ’s confidence in Dern was particularly notable, as she’s actually the underdog against the favored Jandiroba.
The rapid-fire nature of AJ’s picks created some amusing confusion, with Dave struggling to keep up. “Okay, so off the bat, you know that I’m going with Tom Aspinall. Oh, I’m going with Mackenzie Dern, I think she’s gonna beat Virna, Virna is like a favorite… Then I’m going with Umar, then I’m gonna go with Volkov. I’m straight down the path here, and then I’m… I’m gonna go with Asmat,” AJ rattled off.
Dave described the parlay as essentially a collection of favorites that should pay modest returns—the safe play for someone who got badly burned on last week’s predictions (more on that shortly).
Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba: New Strawweight Champion Crowned
One of the most significant bouts on UFC 321 determines the new UFC women’s strawweight champion after Zhang Weili vacated the title to challenge Valentina Shevchenko for the flyweight belt. Mackenzie Dern takes on Virna Jandiroba for the vacant 115-pound strap, and despite Jandiroba entering as the favorite, AJ sees upset potential.
“I think she’s gonna beat Virna, Virna is like a favorite,” AJ predicted confidently. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt Dern has been on a solid run, and her elite grappling credentials give her multiple paths to victory. Jandiroba is no slouch on the ground herself, setting up a fascinating grappling chess match that could end in submission at any moment.
The two previously met at UFC 256 in December 2020, with Dern taking a unanimous decision. That historical context makes Dern’s current underdog status somewhat surprising—though Jandiroba has evolved considerably since that loss.
During last week’s show, when the title vacation news broke mid-episode, Dave seemed genuinely surprised by the development. “Mackenzie Dern could become a champion in the UFC,” he noted with a mix of shock and respect. AJ had responded enthusiastically: “Man, it could happen. Crazy. At least she’s still there, man. It’s incredible.”
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista: Bantamweight Contender Clash
Originally scheduled to headline UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen, Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista was moved to the UFC 321 main card for unknown reasons—likely because the UFC recognized this bantamweight bout deserves more eyeballs.
Umar, cousin of the legendary Khabib, continues building his case for a title shot with his well-rounded game and suffocating control. Bautista presents a tough test with his striking and scrambling ability, but most expect the Nurmagomedov name to continue its winning ways.
AJ included Umar in his parlay as one of the safer picks, banking on Dagestani wrestling to overwhelm Bautista’s game.
UFC Vancouver Recap: How Did Last Week’s Predictions Crash and Burn?
The Main Event Disaster
The biggest story from Vancouver was Brendan Allen’s complete dismantling of Reinier de Ridder, who came into the fight as a significant favorite and presumptive title eliminator. All three hosts had backed RDR heavily in their parlays, only to watch him get dominated before his corner mercifully stopped the fight.
“Last week, we shouldn’t have mentioned it. RDR lost. Got beaten up. Apparently, he came in pretty injured, right? He had a broken rib or something going into the fight, like he was not right going into that fight,” Dave explained with obvious disappointment. “He looked bad, and after the fourth round, he didn’t even come out of the corner. He just was like nah. His corner threw in the towel. He was getting beaten up too badly. He was exhausted, and he just didn’t fight anymore.”
“Then Brendan Allen, who came in on short notice to take this fight, beats RDR. So there goes RDR out of the picture for middleweight title shot, and looks like Nassourdine Imavov will be next for Khamzat, right?” Dave concluded, acknowledging the seismic shift in the middleweight title picture.
The injury revelation doesn’t excuse the loss, but it provides context for why de Ridder looked completely flat against Allen, who seized his opportunity and delivered a career-defining performance. That’s the fight game—sometimes the underdog on short notice is actually the sharper, healthier fighter.
Fred and Dave agreed that Sean Strickland, once he returns from suspension, could also factor into the title picture, though Fred strongly prefers Imavov. “I mean, I could if they do it. It’s about selling pay-per-views and all that, because Strickland will sell more than Imavov. But I would rather see Imavov, like Strickland, who hasn’t looked great in his recent fights. I don’t see why he should be getting a title shot,” Fred argued.
Dave agreed: “I agree. I’d go with Imavov.”
AJ’s Parlay Gets Torched
The Vancouver recap had some pointed moments, particularly when Dave called out AJ’s bold predictions from the previous week.
“I love when he says ‘pretty much, pretty much’—your pics didn’t come through. You didn’t win shit last week,” Dave ribbed his co-host mercilessly. AJ had gone all-in on Canadian fighters, predicting that Charles Jourdain, Aiman Zahabi, and Mike Malott would all win—and incredibly, all three delivered.
What sunk AJ’s parlay was his confidence in the main and co-main events. He’d backed Reinier de Ridder and selected Manon Fiorot over Jasmine Jasudavicius, building an ambitious five-fight parlay that would have paid out over $600 on a $20 bet at +931 odds.
Canadian Success Stories Provide Silver Lining
While the main event disappointed and parlays got torched, several Canadian fighters delivered career-defining performances that had the hosts genuinely excited:
Aiman Zahabi defeated Marlon “Chito” Vera by split decision in what Dave described as a “pretty controversial fight,” though all three hosts believed Zahabi deserved the nod. “I think Aiman got the W, you’re mad there, but I think he won,” Dave assessed with his characteristic bluntness.
The victory continues Zahabi’s remarkable career resurgence and positions the TriStar Gym product for bigger fights at bantamweight. Coming off that incredible war with Jose Aldo in Toronto, Zahabi is proving that his technical skills and championship-level cardio can compete with anyone in the top 10.
Charles Jourdain absolutely stole the show with a first-round submission victory over Davey Grant, living up to all the pre-fight hype. “Charles Jourdain did not leave it in the hands of the judges with a beautiful submission win over Davey Grant in the first round. Well done,” Dave reported with obvious pride in the Montreal native.
The Jourdain brothers have become one of MMA’s most compelling storylines. Fred revealed he’d trained with someone this week who “swears to me, like he trains with Charles, and he swears to me that Louis is actually the better fighter of the two. So I can’t wait to see a Louis fight now.”
Charles himself had claimed after the fight that they’re the first brother duo in the UFC—though Dave quickly corrected that they’re likely the first Canadian brother duo, not the first overall. The comparison to the Diaz brothers feels apt, as AJ noted: “Yeah, Louis’s amazing, man. He’s impressive. That’s something special right there. We’ll see how he does under pressure. But it could be quite nice to see, like those two brothers, man, being the Diaz brothers of Canada. Like going at it, and their social media posts are super funny, man. They’re great.”
Mike Malott delivered perhaps the night’s most significant upset, defeating veteran Kevin Holland by decision in the co-main event. “Huge win for Mike Malott over Kevin Holland. Like, that’s a big name,” Dave emphasized, and rightfully so.
Malott improved his UFC record and showed he belongs among welterweight contenders. “Yeah, he’s for real. Like, you got to take Mike Malott seriously now at welterweight. Like, he could do some damage,” Dave assessed. The hosts checked the rankings and noted Malott had just cracked the top 15 at #15, while Holland, surprisingly, wasn’t ranked despite his name value.
Fred had actually picked Holland in his parlay, while AJ had gone with his fellow Canadian. The decision proved prescient, as Malott’s grinding style and relentless pressure wore down Holland’s inconsistent effort.
Manon Fiorot defeated Jasmine Jasudavicius by first-round TKO, continuing the French flyweight’s march toward a title shot. “Manon Fiorot from France beat the Canadian Jasmine Jasudavicius by TKO in the first round, man. I’ll just smash her,” Dave reported, noting the dominant nature of Fiorot’s performance.
The Broader Middleweight Picture
With de Ridder’s loss, the middleweight title picture has become considerably clearer. Khamzat Chimaev holds the belt after his victory over Dricus du Plessis, and now faces a decision between Nassourdine Imavov and Sean Strickland for his first defense.
“That would make sense, or Sean Strickland when he gets off suspension,” Dave noted, before Fred jumped in with his strong preference for Imavov based on recent form and fighting ability rather than promotional value.
The conversation revealed the eternal tension in UFC matchmaking—give the champion the most deserving contender (Imavov) or the biggest pay-per-view draw (Strickland). Fred’s take was refreshingly principled: he wants to see Chimaev stay active above all else, regardless of opponent.
“And at that point, man, to me, I don’t really care, either one of them. I just want to see Chimaev being active. I believe Chimaev will be a huge favorite against either guy, and he’ll win. But I want to see Chimaev being active. So whatever brings me Chimaev being active the quickest, that’s what I’m choosing,” Fred had explained in last week’s show.
Looking Ahead: What’s at Stake This Weekend
UFC 321 in Abu Dhabi represents a crucial moment for several fighters’ careers:
- Tom Aspinall can cement his status as the undisputed heavyweight king with a win over a former interim champion
- Ciryl Gane can resurrect his title aspirations and prove the Jon Jones loss was a fluke
- Mackenzie Dern has the chance to finally capture UFC gold after years of developing her complete game
- Virna Jandiroba can earn her first UFC championship and validate years of grinding through the division
- Umar Nurmagomedov continues building his case for a bantamweight title shot
- Alexander Volkov and Jailton Almeida are one win away from a heavyweight title shot
The stakes couldn’t be higher, and based on last week’s unpredictable results, nothing is guaranteed. As Dave would say, “That’s the thing”—in MMA, the favorites don’t always win, injuries affect performances, and styles make fights.
The Verdict: Tune In for What Could Be Fight of the Year
Whether you’re betting alongside AJ’s conservative parlay approach or looking for your own upset specials, UFC 321 delivers on paper. The Aspinall vs. Gane main event has legitimate FOTY potential, the women’s strawweight title fight guarantees high-level grappling, and the heavyweight co-main could produce a devastating knockout at any moment.
The Ringside Report MMA crew will be back this weekend to break down all the action, likely with more fashion shows, sugar daddy discussions, and brutally honest takes on who called it right and who needs to rethink their prediction process (looking at you, AJ).
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane takes place Saturday, October 25, 2025, at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Main card begins at 2:00 PM ET / 11:00 AM PT on ESPN+ PPV.
Watch Ringside Report MMA every Thursday at 8:00 PM ET on YouTube, Rumble, Twitch, DLive, and Kick for the latest UFC analysis, predictions, and brutally honest takes from Dave Simon, AJ D’Alesio, and Fred Garcia.
