UFC 328 Preview: AJ Predicts the Biggest Upset in UFC History | Chimaev vs. Strickland

The circus came to Newark — and it arrived with police escorts. Dave Simon and AJ D’Alesio broke down every angle of UFC 328 on Thursday’s Ringside Report MMA UFC 328 preview, dissecting a press conference so volatile it made Conor vs. Khabib look like a corporate town hall. Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland have built genuine, bone-deep hatred for one another, and with the middleweight title on the line Saturday at the Prudential Center, the question isn’t just who wins — it’s whether anyone can keep things from going sideways before the first punch is thrown.

UFC 328 Main Event: Chimaev vs. Strickland — A Different Kind of Fight

When you do a UFC 328 preview, the main event sells itself — but not always for the reasons you expect. Khamzat Chimaev enters as a massive -800 favourite. Sean Strickland, the former middleweight champion who shocked the world by dethroning Israel Adesanya, comes in as the +500 underdog. On paper, it looks like a foregone conclusion. On the stage at the Thursday press conference, it looked like something that could end careers — or worse.

Chimaev opened by throwing an actual kick at Strickland during the face-off. Strickland, for his part, needed roughly six people to hold him back — a notable contrast to the two-and-a-half on Khamzat’s side. The press conference audio that Dave played on the show captures Strickland in a state that goes far beyond professional trash talk. He invoked child sexual abuse, called Chimaev a “whore,” and went at the Chechen fighter in a way that was raw, personal, and unmistakably sincere.

“That was more intense than Conor,” AJ said flatly. “More intense than Jake Paul. More intense than Colby. That was something else.”

Dave agreed on the intensity — while offering an important piece of context that most casual fans missed entirely.

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The Kadyrov Factor: What Strickland Is Actually Saying

Throughout the press conference, Strickland kept referring to someone named “Cadero” — a name that left even Dave momentarily confused. Was he talking about a former Montreal Expo? No. He was talking about Ramzan Kadyrov, the warlord leader of Chechnya, who has maintained a long, well-documented friendship with Khamzat Chimaev. Kadyrov has gifted Chimaev Mercedes-Maybachs and posed for countless photos with him. He is, by any reasonable measure, a dangerous and deeply troubling figure — and Strickland calling him out by name (or trying to) is one of the more politically charged moments in recent UFC history.

“He’s just grossly mispronouncing the dictator’s name,” Dave said, “but point taken. Point for Strickland on bringing that up — just you know, it’d be better if you could say the guy’s name so the world could maybe Google it.” Notable names like John Jones, Justin Gaethje, and Henry Cejudo have all taken money and done appearances with Kadyrov, something Dave made a point of flagging.

AJ saw the Kadyrov attacks as only part of the picture. What really moved the needle for him was Strickland’s emotional reaction to Chimaev flaunting his wealth — the cars, the gifts, the lifestyle built on Chechen political currency. “Strickland right now is not fighting for the money,” AJ said. “I saw it in his eyes. If he had a choice to destroy Chimaev and remain poor, or make a lot of money and lose, he’d stay poor. A nerve has been pinched, man. And that’s what scares me.” Check out our UFC 319 preview where Chimaev dominated Dricus Du Plessis to understand just how destructive this version of Khamzat can be.

Dave’s Pick: Chimaev Wins — But It Won’t Be Clean

Despite the emotional fireworks, Dave isn’t swaying from the chalk. He’s going with Khamzat Chimaev, and his reasoning is grounded in the one thing that has defined Chimaev’s rise through the UFC: wrestling. “I think what’s gonna clinch it is the wrestling of Khamzat Chimaev, which has been clinching it for him his whole career,” Dave said. “I think he’s gonna land those key takedowns on Strickland and win that fight — but if he’s not able to, look out.”

Importantly, Dave doesn’t see this as a blowout. He compares the stylistic dynamics to the Gilbert Burns fight — a three-round war in which Chimaev took real damage and grew tired. Stretched to five rounds against a fresher, tougher opponent with better takedown defence, the calculus shifts. “I could see Strickland outpacing him in rounds four and five and putting him away — that doesn’t sound crazy to me,” Dave admitted. “But I do think Chimaev wins. By decision. He gets some key takedowns, but they don’t come as easily as they have in the past.”

One significant factor Dave flagged: Strickland has trained with Chimaev. He has felt what the Chechen is about in a live setting. “All that training and sparring years ago is basically meaningless on fight night,” Dave noted — but Strickland at least arrives without illusions. And his last performance? Dave called it the best version of Sean Strickland he’s ever seen. For historical context on Strickland’s championship run, see our coverage of Strickland’s title shot against Du Plessis at UFC 312.

AJ’s Pick: Sean Strickland — The Biggest Upset in UFC History

AJ D’Alesio came into this UFC 328 preview leaning toward Chimaev. He left predicting a seismic upset. “I’m going with Sean Strickland,” AJ announced flat-out. “I think this is gonna be the biggest upset in UFC history — even more than Khabib and Conor.”

His argument rests on three pillars. First, the emotion: Strickland’s fire this week isn’t performance art. It’s real, and real fire makes men dangerous. Second, the numbers: Strickland boasts the highest takedown defence percentage in middleweight history. If Chimaev can’t get him to the mat, he can’t outbox him — and AJ thinks Strickland’s Philly shell defence and accuracy at range will be a constant problem. Third, the cardio: Chimaev has historically faded later in fights. Against a “rockhead” who won’t go away, five rounds could tell a different story.

“Chimaev right now takes one strike per minute on average,” AJ said. “Strickland takes five. The guy absorbs punishment and keeps coming. He’s 30 and 7; he’s been in the UFC since 2014; and he’s 35 years old, right at the pinnacle of his career. Hamzat is taking this not as seriously as he should — when he starts pulling out the money thing, that showed me Strickland will go in there and fight for not even a dollar. That’s the difference.” See how Chimaev looked in his last outing in our complete UFC 319 breakdown.

Co-Main Event: Joshua Van (c) vs. Tatsuro Taira — Flyweight Title on the Line

The co-main event is one of the most intriguing title fights of 2026. Joshua Van holds the flyweight belt, but his path to the championship — a quick finish after champion Alexandre Pantoja dislocated his shoulder posting up on a takedown — left fans and analysts with plenty of questions about the legitimacy of the reign. Now Van must prove himself against Tatsuro Taira, one of the most technically gifted young fighters in the division.

Oddsmakers have Taira as the -170 favourite with Van at +130. Dave is going against the grain: he’s backing Van. “I think van has had a little bit stiffer competition and shown up more,” Dave explained, pointing specifically to Van’s dominant win over Brandon Royval — the only man to defeat Taira inside the UFC. “That Roy Val fight made me lose a little bit of faith in Tatsuro Taira. And Van is gaining more faith every time I see him.” Dave sees it going the full five rounds, with Van winning a decision. Our piece on Joshua Van accepting the Brandon Royval challenge has the backstory on his rise to the title.

AJ sees it differently — and not just because of the fighter. “Tatsuro Taira will be the first-ever Japanese UFC champion,” AJ said. “And not to take away from Joshua Van — I think he’s amazing — but just the way he won… it was hard for me to swallow. Tatsuro Taira is a beast. He’s like a shark in water, just roaming and roaming. I think Saturday night, there are gonna be two title changes.” AJ warns that Taira’s grappling is elite, and his ground game could neutralize whatever advantages Van brings. Van is 24 years old, Taira is 26 — two of the youngest title contenders in recent memory.

Main Card Picks: Volkov, Brady vs. Buckley, King Green

Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight): Volkov enters at -150, Cortes-Acosta at +120. Dave likes Volkov: “Always game, always dangerous — big tall heavyweight out of Russia. I think Volkov pulls this one out.” AJ is on the other side. Cortes-Acosta has won three straight by knockout and has the power to end it at any moment. “Waldo has everything,” AJ said. “Where’s Waldo — he’s going for the win.” Dave picks Volkov, AJ picks Waldo.

Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley (Welterweight): Brady enters as the -175 favourite, Buckley at +135. Brady is the grappler; Buckley is the striker. Dave sees this as Buckley’s fight to lose. “If Buckley keeps this fight standing, he wins. Brady wants to take it to the ground — that’s his game. But if he can’t get it there, it’s gonna be a problem.” Dave is picking Buckley by knockout. AJ picks Brady, arguing that Brady’s grappling will dismantle Buckley: “It’s gonna be a complete teardown. A grappling event.”

King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens (Lightweight): Green is a heavy -375 favourite, Stephens at +275. This is the rare fight where the hosts agree. Stephens has bounced between the UFC, PFL, and bare-knuckle boxing — he even fought Eddie Alvarez and Mike Perry at BKFC. He’s 2-8-1 in his last 11 fights. Dave and AJ both like King Green here. “Jeremy Stevens is here to lose,” Dave said. “King Green at -375 sounds about right.”

Notable Prelims: Gautier, Miller-Gordon, and Pat Sabatini

The prelims offer some compelling local interest. Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon is the true hometown fight of the night — Miller is a New Jersey native, and Gordon hails from Queens. Dave described it as “a fun one for the locals.” Ateba Gautier vs. Osman Diaz drew Dave’s attention as a middleweight matchup with real stakes, noting Gautier enters as a big -1250 favourite.

AJ is particularly fired up about Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis on the early prelims. Sabatini, who fights out of the Philadelphia area, has an outstanding record on the New Jersey circuit. “Every time he fights in the New Jersey circuit, he wins,” AJ said. “This guy is something to watch out for. I always liked him as a fighter.” AJ added Sabatini to his parlay. Dave agrees Sabatini is good — “He’s a good fighter, technically” — though he stopped short of adding him to his own picks. For a full breakdown of how we evaluate fighters like this, see our look at the greatest UFC fighters of all time.

UFC at the White House: Freedom 250 Details Revealed

Dave shared footage of the upcoming UFC at the White House event — being called “Freedom 250” — and the setup is genuinely spectacular. A massive dome covers the octagon in case of rain. Fighters will actually walk out from inside the White House and down a stage into the fighting area. Trump was at the White House this week with Ilya Topuria, Justin Gaethje, Alex Pereira, and Cyril Gane to promote the event, which Dave expects to be a Topuria vs. Gaethje main event. A custom “UFC USA” championship belt has also been unveiled for the occasion.

The Parlays

AJ summed it up best: “I’m going with pure emotion here — but I feel it. This is gonna be the biggest upset in UFC history coming up on Saturday night. I know it sounds crazy, man. But I feel it.”

Watch Along Saturday at 9 PM ET

Dave and AJ will be back Saturday night at 9 PM ET for the live UFC 328 watch-along as the main card gets underway. They’ll also be breaking down WWE Backlash — which features Jacob Fatu vs. Roman Reigns and Seth Rollins vs. Bron Breakker — before the MMA action begins. Fred, who was off Thursday, is expected to be back for the Saturday show. Don’t miss it — bring your popcorn, because this one has all the makings of a legendary night of combat sports.