Ringside Report MMA delivers controversial predictions about the Paramount era and why star power will trump merit in 2026
UFC 2026 predictions took center stage on Thursday night’s Ringside Report MMA as Dave Simon laid out his most controversial forecast yet: the Paramount era will bring a year of fights nobody asked for. From Sean O’Malley getting another undeserved title shot to Islam Makachev fighting Kamaru Usman instead of legitimate contenders, Dave explained exactly why the UFC’s subscription model will prioritize star power over merit.
2026 is the year the UFC gives us fights we don’t wanna see,” Dave declared, setting the tone for an episode that became less about Saturday’s Brandon Royval versus Manel Kape main event and more about what’s coming when the promotion transitions to Paramount. “They’re gonna give us a bunch of fights no one asked for. And we’ll determine nothing. We’ll mean nothing.”
What started as a discussion about Merab Dvalishvili’s UFC 323 loss evolved into a complete indictment of where the UFC is heading – and Dave’s specific UFC 2026 predictions about which unwanted matchups fans should expect hit uncomfortably close to reality.
The Six-Week UFC Drought and Paramount’s Uncertain Future
The December 14th card at UFC Vegas isn’t just the last show of 2025 – it’s the last UFC event for six whole weeks, marking an unusually long break for the promotion.
“We’re coming up on December 13th. We’re gonna have to wait, one, two, three, four… What? I have six weeks. Six weeks before the next UFC,” Dave calculated, clearly surprised by the length of the break.
“That’s all gonna be on a new platform as well. It’s gonna be interesting,” AJ added, referencing the upcoming Paramount deal that will fundamentally change how fans access UFC content.
The timing creates a strange limbo period for UFC fans. After Saturday’s ESPN finale, the promotion goes dark until late January when UFC 324 launches the new Paramount era. It’s the most extended break the UFC has taken in years, coming at a pivotal moment in the sport’s media landscape.
The UFC’s move to Paramount in 2026 remains shrouded in uncertainty even as the transition date approaches. “The UFC is this weekend. It’s the last UFC fight on ESPN. Next year, 2026. They’re gonna be on Paramount. They’re gonna be on CBS for some big events. Although apparently, Dana White said that the White House card is gonna be streaming on Paramount and will not be on CBS, which is weird,” Dave explained.
The confusion extends to one of the promotion’s most significant planned events. Donald Trump’s White House card – supposedly featuring eight or nine title fights, according to the president – won’t be on CBS despite being promoted as a major event.
“Donald Trump says there’s gonna be eight or nine title fights on the White House card, which seems improbable. What? That’s not, I mean– It’s never happened before. There are eight male weight divisions in the UFC. So, eight champions in the male division. Yeah, three in the women’s division. So, theoretically, it’s possible, but you would be blowing so many title fights for the rest of the year by putting them all on one show,” Dave noted.
Fred added context: “They might do three to make it really important and special, but more than three.” AJ suggested a solution: “Yeah, more than three would be nuts. You throw in the BMF, and that’s how you do it. You get four out of it.”
The promotional landscape behind the UFC’s platform move adds another layer of intrigue. “Paramount, what Paramount is trying to do right now as well. Trying to buy out Warner Bros. Whatever’s going on there. Netflix– Big money. Said that they had bought Warner Brothers, and then Paramount was like, ‘No, no, no, we’re buying it,'” Dave explained.
“Interesting times for media in the United States, and kind of in the world. And the UFC is right there in the middle of it, jumping on Paramount in 2026—quite a place to be for the UFC. A big show in the White House, they’re with Paramount now, and the Ellisons, it’s an interesting spot for the UFC to find themselves in, coming up in the new year,” Dave observed.
For Canadian fans like Dave, the situation creates additional uncertainty. “I don’t know how it’s gonna work for us in Canada. That’s what I’m most concerned about. I don’t really care about how it works over in the States because I don’t live there. It doesn’t affect me. I wanna know how it’s gonna work here for us Canadians, Canadian UFC fans. And it seems like we’re getting screwed.”
UFC 323 Fallout: Should Merab Still Be Fighter of the Year?
The aftermath of last week’s UFC 323 dominated much of the discussion, specifically regarding Merab Dvalishvili’s loss to Petr Yan and what it means for his Fighter of the Year candidacy.
AJ brought up their betting misfortune: “We came close with our parlays last week, man. Cape. We were so close, man. We’re all one fight away. Merab, yeah, you and I, we’re both fighting away, right? That’s it, all we needed was Merab to win, and I would’ve pulled out a $20 bet, and I think the payout was about $360 or something like that. Yep. Would’ve been beautiful, man.”
But the real controversy emerged around Merab’s post-fight revelations about fighting injured. “He had norovirus, and he had a broken hand. If we knew about this beforehand, maybe we would’ve thought twice. And you know what bothers me the most? All week I’ve been thinking about it. I understand you gotta fight, I understand, you gotta fight. But when a guy is going for his fifth title defense, he could’ve walked away and said, Listen, I can’t fight. I mean, you know, I understand everybody has to please Dana or Dana, you know? But man, when you have a broken hand, do you wanna go into a championship fight? Let’s be honest,” AJ argued.
Dave had a different perspective on the excuse-making. “I don’t know. You don’t fight, you don’t get paid.”
Fred took an even harder line. “You decide to show up, man. You decide to show up, you shouldn’t be giving excuses, man. If he was good enough to go, man, I don’t wanna hear it, man. You lost. Props to Peter Yance.”
“Yeah, that’s how I feel,” Dave agreed. “Merab, you know, he lost, he showed up, he fought, he didn’t win. Jan fought very well. It was a very good fight. I think they’ll fight again, you know? Merab will get a chance to redeem himself. I think they’ll fight again. I hope it’ll be immediate. Dana seemed to think maybe not, which is annoying to me, cause I feel they’re gonna try and put O’Malley in there.”
“That would be so stupid,” Fred responded immediately.
“Yo, they’re desperate to put O’Malley in a title fight,” Dave confirmed, setting up one of his major predictions for 2026.
Why 2026 Will Be the Year of Unwanted UFC Matchups
Dave’s analysis of the bantamweight division led to a broader, more damning prediction about the UFC’s direction in 2026 – a year he believes will prioritize star power over merit in ways that frustrate hardcore fans.
“Okay, listen. He’s fighting Deiveson Figueiredo. No, sorry, he’s fighting Song Yadong at UFC 324. If he beats Song Yadong, he will get a title shot ahead of Merab,” Dave explained, laying out the UFC’s likely path for Sean O’Malley.
“Merab destroyed him twice, man. He showed him that,” Fred protested.
“I don’t disagree with you at all. I’m telling you what the UFC’s gonna do. And I think you know it. You know it, you know how they operate. They want Sean O’Malley in there. They do not want Merab to win. They give Sean O’Malley another title shot for no reason. If he has one win, they’re gonna give him another title shot at Peter Yan. Cause I think he can beat Peter Yan, cause he fought him and he, I mean, won on the scorecard somehow. Come on,” Dave said with obvious frustration.
AJ acknowledged the reality: “Look, if Merab is healthy, he’s beating Peter, you know.”
“Again,” Dave emphasized, reminding everyone that Merab has already proven his dominance over O’Malley.
This led to Dave’s most controversial prediction of the night: “2026 is the year the UFC gives us fights we don’t wanna see. They’re starting off very strong with Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett. Who wants to see that?”
Dave continued his rant with brutal honesty. “I mean, I know there’s a headline that we have on our channel says it’s Patti doomed. I don’t think Patti’s doomed. I think Gaethje is probably in trouble. I think Patti wins the fight. But it doesn’t mean anything. It means he’s the number three lightweight in the UFC. You’re an interim champion. You’re behind Toporia and Islam. And, you know, there’s probably some other guys. Tsurukyan. Yep. It means you’re number four. This is a title fight for who’s number four. This isn’t even who’s number one. It’s number four and five fighting to decide who’s the real number four at lightweight in the UFC. Who gives a shit who number four is?”
The indictment grew harsher. “The UFC is giving us fights we don’t want to see. They’re giving us Diego Lopes and Volkanovski. There are a lot better fights for Volkanovski out there. There are a lot more compelling matchups. They’re giving us fights we don’t want to see in 2026. They’re going to give us Sean O’Malley versus Petr Yan, too. And they’re gonna have Merab fight Umar or something.”
Dave laid out his entire prediction for how the UFC’s bantamweight division manipulation will play out: “Umar’s fighting somebody. Umar’s fighting Figueiredo. If Umar beats Figueiredo at UFC 324, this is where it’s all going down. The master plan of Dana White and the UFC and the Sean O’Malley hype machine. When Umar beats Deiveson Figueiredo and Sean O’Malley beats Song Yadong, the UFC will then make Merab versus Umar too and Sean O’Malley versus Petr Yan too for the belt. Guarantam to you. And no one will want to see that. Because everybody will say, ‘Well, you should give Umar or Merab a title shot ahead of Sean O’Malley.’ And the UFC is saying, ‘Yeah, whatever. Shut up. What do you know?'”
The welterweight division predictions were equally grim. And then, Islam Makachev’s first UFC welterweight title defense in 2026 is gonna be against Kamaru Usman when there are much better challenges out there like Shavkat Rakhmonov or Ian Machado Gary. And they’re gonna give us Kamaru Usman in a fight that nobody wants to see. And that’ll be another pay-per-view with a main event that nobody wants to see in 2026. I’m telling you, 2026 is the year 2026 is the year the UFC gives us a bunch of fights. No one asked for. And we’ll determine nothing. We’ll mean nothing. And they’ll probably give us a Conor McGregor fight that’ll also mean nothing, because he’s irrelevant. They’re gonna give us a bunch of nothing, and we won’t find out who’s the best at anything at all.”
AJ attempted to provide context for the UFC’s strategy: “But you’re right. They’re not going for irrelevancy. They’re going for numbers. And when Conor comes, regardless if he’s irrelevant or not, he’s going to break numbers again. And that’s the thing, and that’s what they want. Going into a new model, there’s no more pay-per-view. It’s not based on who’s the real champion. It’s all it’s gonna be theatrics. I’m telling you, the UFC is going into the era of theatrics, and that’s what it’s all about. That’s why Conor’s on the table, and that’s why we’re talking about the White House and all this kind of stuff. It’s all about rising numbers. Sean O’Malley’s there. I mean, let’s be honest. I like Sean O’Malley, but he brings in the numbers. That’s the problem.”
“He’s not that guy. He’s not, you know, he brings in the numbers. I’m telling you, they’re gonna go there. These are title fights that are gonna happen in the UFC in 2026. Justin Gaethje versus Paddy Pimblett for an interim lightweight title. Who knows if Toporia will ever come back or when he’ll come back? You’re gonna have a welterweight title fight between Usman and Makachev, and you’re gonna have a bantamweight title fight between Petr Yan and Sean O’Malley. These are three pay-per-views the UFC is gonna try and roll out in 2026. Who knows what else they’ll do? Who knows what else bullshit they’ll do?” Dave concluded before adding one more prediction: “Khamzat Chimaev versus Israel Adesanya. You know, watch. They’ll do that. Yeah. Even though it really isn’t the fight to make.”
Fred made one last plea for sanity: “I gotta believe that Merab has to get the title shot, man. Come on, UFC, man. He’s been such a good champion, and this fight with Peter Jan was a decent one; if he really was injured, it’s even more reason for him to have the rematch. But I mean, period, he’s been such a good champion. He should get a rematch.”
“Right. And he deserves– He’s a great company guy in 2025,” Dave acknowledged before AJ added: “You listen, you almost broke a record, man. You know, and that’s the thing. You’re absolutely right, and I agree with Fred as well. I mean, he deserves that shot, and he has to get that shot. He almost broke a record, man. Five fights, he would have been in the history books.”
The discussion then turned to a crucial question: Does Merab’s loss disqualify him from Fighter of the Year honors?
“Let me ask you this about Merab. We talked about it last week. He’s the fighter of the year, this and that. Is he still the fighter of the year after the loss?” Dave posed. “I’m gonna say no. He had three title defenses and one loss.”
AJ defended Merab’s candidacy based on volume: “I think so. Why? Because he lost. He had five, man. Five title defenses.”
“He had three title defenses and one loss,” Dave corrected. The debate captured a fundamental question about what Fighter of the Year should mean – is it about winning everything or about activity and dominance for most of the year?
“Yeah, I mean, because he did so much, you know? The quantity of fights may give to him. Like, it’s a question. I’m not saying for sure one way or another, but I’m kinda leaning towards no, because he lost. And in my books, you gotta win. It’s about winning, damn it,” Dave concluded.
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape Analysis
After the extensive 2026 predictions, the show finally turned its attention to Saturday’s actual card – though with notably less enthusiasm than the UFC might hope for.
“What an awful year it’s been for UFC APAC cards. They’ve been bad. You know? Too many of them. Not good, a bunch of people you’ve never heard of. Who cares? What the hell is this?” Dave said, capturing the general sentiment about the UFC Apex shows.
The main event features Brandon Royval taking on Manel Kape in a flyweight bout, the third time the UFC has attempted to make this fight.
“People don’t like Manel Cape. It’s bad blood,” Dave observed. “A lot of the fighters that fight him seem to really hate him. Apparently, he pulls out of fights. This is the third time that they’ve tried to make this one. So I think there’s bad blood with Roy Vow and Cape.”
Fred noted the betting line with surprise: “It’s a pretty big, pretty big favorite still, I’m surprised. And it’s that much, the odds are minus 290 I see for Cape.”
“I’m surprised by that too,” Dave agreed. “Cape does win fights, but he pulls out of a lot of fights, too. A lot of fights. You think this fight actually takes place on Saturday? We’re sitting here on Thursday night. This may not happen. Can I bet on that? Can I bet on the fight being canceled? Can I bet on Manel Cape not making weight and them not doing this fight?”
Despite Kape being a significant favorite, all three hosts leaned toward the underdog. “And I think he loses to Brandon Roy Vow with a guillotine,” Dave predicted, making a specific submission call.
“What, calling the submission? Are you crazy? Yeah, I’m crazy. I’m going for it. You’re right, man. There’s, yeah, there’s, it’s possible. Roy Vow’s in a couple of guillotines in the UFC,” AJ responded.
Dave elaborated on why he likes the upset: “Roy Vow is high level though. I’m surprised that Cape is such a big favorite. Cape right now minus 290, Royval plus 215. His last fight was a decision loss to the current champion, Joshua Van. The only other losses he suffered in the UFC are to Pantoja and Brandon Moreno. Like he’s only lost to champions, he’s also beaten Brandon Moreno and Tatsuro Taira in the UFC. Why is Royval such a big underdog here? What is going on? Why is everybody so impressed with Cape? I think he’s gonna lose.”
“Vegas thinks, Vegas thinks the other way, man. That’s the difference,” AJ noted before agreeing: “Yeah, I’m actually going your way too on this. I’m going with Royval as well. And to be honest, if he does, he can pull off that submission, you know? Roy Vow, sub, guillotine. Tap, tap, tap.”
The card also features several other notable matchups, though the hosts’ enthusiasm remained muted. Giga Chikadze faces Kevin Jousset in the co-main event, while Cesar Almeida – a kickboxer who holds a victory over Alex Pereira – takes on Ihor Potieria.
Marcus Buchecha, the legendary Brazilian jiu-jitsu champion, fights Kennedy Nzechukwu in a bout that generated some discussion. “Buchecha. Isn’t he a big jiu-jitsu guy? You love jiu-jitsu, Fred,” Dave prodded. Buchecha’s grappling credentials are unquestionable, but against Nzechukwu’s size and striking power, the hosts saw a tough matchup.
Additional bouts include Bobby Green (now going by “King Green”) versus Lance Gibson Jr., Amanda Lemos facing Canadian Gillian Robertson, and Neil Magny taking on Yaroslav Amosov.
Ringside Report’s Official UFC Vegas 101 Predictions
After dissecting the card and the broader landscape, the hosts made their official picks for Saturday night – keeping things remarkably simple for the final card of the year.
Main Event: Brandon Royval vs Manel Kape
Dave Simon’s Pick: Brandon Royval by Guillotine (+215)
“I’m just going with Royvel in the main event. Plus 215. I was surprised. 20 gets to 63. I’m keeping it simple with Brandon Royvel. Roy Vow, sub, guillotine. Tap, tap, tap.”
AJ D’Alesio’s Multi-Fight Parlay:
- Brandon Royval (+215)
- Giga Chikadze (+240)
- Cesar Almeida (+165)
- Kennedy Nzechukwu (-135)
“Look, I’m going to have to make it a little bit spicier. Dude, I’m going to have to make it a little bit more interesting. A little bit spicier for the New Year’s, man. I’m giving you the turkey with trimmings, man. I’m going to go with what you said, Brandon Royval, man. I think that will pay out well. I got to redeem myself from last week. And then I’m going to go with chickadees: Chikadze, my baby. I’m going to go with Caesar Almeida. As long as Caesar, not Cesare, Caesar stands and grinds, man, I think he’ll be able to take down the Cesare. And then I am going spicy. I don’t want to go against my Buchecha. I love Buchecha, but I’m going to have to go with Kennedy for the knockout here. He’s a big boy, very strong. High volume striker can knock you out, and I think that’s what’s going to happen.”
20-dollar bet returns: $988.10
Fred Garcia’s Pick: Brandon Royval (+215)
Fred kept it simple, matching Dave’s pick on the main event underdog.
The conservative approach from Dave and Fred speaks to their assessment of the card’s quality – when you don’t love the matchups, don’t force parlays. AJ’s willingness to go bigger reflects his need to “redeem himself from last week” after coming so close on his UFC 323 parlay.
Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua: Next Week’s Netflix Spectacle
The show wrapped with a discussion of next week’s boxing match between Jake Paul and Anthony Joshua on Netflix – a fight that has somehow stayed on the schedule despite seeming too good (or too ridiculous) to be actual.
“Next week, there’s no UFC, but next Friday, it’s Jake Paul versus Anthony Joshua boxing on Netflix,” Dave announced.
“You sure it’s going to happen? Are they still confirmed for that?” AJ asked skeptically.
“Yeah, okay. Yeah, it’s still on. We’re a week away, and it’s still on,” Dave confirmed.
AJ gave credit where he felt it was due: “That’s crazy, man. You know what, I gotta give Jake Paul a lot of credit that he’s going up against the real deal, man.”
Dave had observed Paul’s recent training footage with interest. “I saw him doing some bag work, a clip of Jake Paul hitting the bag. He looked good. He looked pretty fast and– He’s solid, dude. He looked sharp and pretty good. I’m not saying he’s going to win, but he might not get totally embarrassed. And if he doesn’t get totally embarrassed, that is a win. If he doesn’t get knocked out, it’s a win. If he can avoid getting knocked out, it’s kind of a win for him.”
AJ took a more optimistic view of Paul’s chances: “But you can’t even say that. You know what, he’s proven himself over and over again against some of the biggest names in the game of boxing and MMA. It doesn’t matter; he still did it. Yeah, but still, man, he’s there, and he’s fighting AJ. So this is a legit fight if it’s not fixed because AJ is like, you know what I mean? The champion at one point. And he takes his boxing seriously. No? I hope it’s not fixed. And to be honest, I think Jake Paul, you gotta give him a lot of credit. He’s gone way longer than anybody expected from the first fight he’s ever done with that KSI guy or whatever it was. He’s fighting AJ, man.”
The discussion revealed Jake Paul’s actual boxing record as more impressive than casual fans might realize. “He has a 12, Dave, think about it. He’s 12 and one in boxing, man. Whether you like him or hate him, man,” AJ noted.
Dave’s final assessment found middle ground: “Well, he’s coming off a win over Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., and Jake Paul will look to beat Anthony Joshua next Friday night, which will be really interesting.”
The Paul-Joshua fight starts at 8 PM, with the main event likely around midnight. It will stream on Netflix, making it easily accessible – though the Ringside Report hosts made clear they won’t be doing a watch-along for a boxing match scheduled to start as their Friday wrestling show wraps up.
Final Thoughts: A Transitional Moment for UFC and Fans
Thursday night’s Ringside Report MMA captured a genuine transitional moment for the UFC and its fanbase. The final ESPN show of 2025 arrives with little fanfare, followed by six weeks of silence before the Paramount era begins. Canadian fans don’t know how they’ll access fights. The details of the White House card remain murky. And Dave Simon’s prediction that 2026 will deliver a year of unwanted matchups hangs over everything like a dark cloud.
“2026 is the year the UFC gives us fights we don’t want to see,” Dave declared, and whether you agree with his specific predictions or not, the underlying concern is real. As the promotion transitions to a subscription model that eliminates pay-per-view revenues, the incentive structure changes. Star power becomes even more valuable. Meritocracy becomes even more negotiable.
Brandon Royval versus Manel Kape might not be the card UFC fans deserve, but it’s the one they’re getting – and then they won’t get another one for a month and a half. The Paramount era looms with both promise and uncertainty. And somewhere, Dana White is already planning which unwanted rematch he’ll announce next.
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