The latest episode of Ringside Report MMA was buzzing with anticipation for UFC 316, as hosts Dave Simon, AJ D’Alesio, and Fred Garcia broke down the stacked card. The crew delivered their hot takes and official predictions for the main event rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley, as well as the co-main event featuring Julianna Peña against the formidable Kayla Harrison. The discussion also dove deep into the heavyweight drama surrounding Jon Jones and Tom Aspinall, exploring what’s next for the division’s biggest names.
The Heavyweight Standoff: Is the Jon Jones Era Over?
The conversation kicked off with the most significant question mark in the heavyweight division: the future of Jon Jones. The potential superfight between the legendary Jones and interim champion Tom Aspinall seems to be fading. Aspinall appears to be moving on, having recently taken to social media to wish the champion well in his post-fighting life.
Dave read the post on the show, stating, “Well, three days ago, Tom Aspinall was Jon Jones’s happy retirement.” He continued, quoting Aspinall directly: “‘Wanna be the first to wish John all the best in his retirement. Let’s get this division going at UFC.”
This move by Aspinall suggests he’s tired of waiting for a fight that may never happen. Fred Garcia commended the decision, drawing a comparison to another fighter who put his career on hold. “Look at what happened with Michael Chandler waiting for McGregor, man,” Fred warned. “You don’t want to waste a year of your career.” He emphasized that while Jones is the biggest payday, Aspinall is in his prime and needs to stay active.
Dave brought up an older, yet relevant, example. “I was going to say, you know, don’t be like Rashad Evans. Remember, he waited way too long,” he recalled, referencing the situation where Evans waited for a title shot, got injured, and Jon Jones stepped in to take the belt and his spot. The story served as a cautionary tale for any fighter waiting on the sidelines.
Is Jones Ducking a Fight with Aspinall?
A recurring theme in the MMA world is the idea that Jon Jones is avoiding a matchup with Tom Aspinall. Dave Simon quickly dismissed this notion. “And I’m like, ‘Are you crazy? Why would he be scared of anybody? He’s Jon Jones,” Dave said, defending the legacy of a fighter who has faced a murderer’s row of opponents. He listed some of Jones’s past rivals to make his point: “So many personal beefs, Rashad, Daniel Cormier, the Gustafson fights, like to say that he’s scared of Tom Aspinall or he wouldn’t, it’s like, come on, he’s done so much.”
The hosts agreed that the issue isn’t fear, but a lack of motivation. Dave believes Jones doesn’t see Aspinall as a big enough name to warrant a return. “I think he has lost the fire in a way in the sense that he doesn’t have that much motivation to beat Tom Aspinall because he doesn’t see Tom Aspinall as a big fight,” Dave explained. He argued that Jones was interested in a fight with Alex Pereira because Pereira had built a huge name and following. For Jones, it’s about the magnitude of the event. “He doesn’t feel like Aspinall’s worth his time,” Dave stated.
Fred Garcia wondered if that fire could ever be reignited. “I’m starting to think, though, maybe that Jon Jones is losing the fire,” he said. He argued that waiting longer might be detrimental. “The longer he waits, his odds go down,” Fred predicted.
AJ D’Alesio brought up Jones’s age as a factor, noting he’s 37. “In a couple of years, he’ll be 40,” AJ pointed out. While heavyweight fighters can have longer careers, he feels the time is now. “He’s gotta do it now.”
A New Heavyweight Landscape: Aspinall vs. Gane
With the Jones fight looking unlikely, the hosts turned their attention to the most logical next step: a clash between Tom Aspinall and former interim champion Ciryl Gane. Dave has been calling for this fight from the beginning. “Tom Aspinall should just fight Ciryl Gane,” he declared. “And it looks like I’ll be right about that.”
This potential matchup sparked a lively debate. AJ, a long-time Gane supporter, surprisingly gave the edge to Aspinall. “I think Tom Aspinall, Tom Aspinall has a deeper, deeper credibility,” AJ argued. He listed Aspinall’s impressive victories over top contenders: “He’s beaten Curtis Blaydes… He beat Pavlic. He beat Tabora. He beat Volkov. He beat Spivak. These were all big names that we were saying were killers in the heavyweight division. And he dismantled them.” AJ believes Aspinall’s overall game, particularly his fighting IQ and jiu-jitsu, is superior. “I think what Jon Jones did to Ciryl Gane, I was shocked. But he’s not going to be able to do that to Tom Aspinall,” he said.
Dave offered a strong counterargument, defending Gane’s resume. “Let me counter that… with Ciryl Gane, who has knocked out Derrick Lewis, Tai Tuivasa, Sergey Spivak, is coming off a decision win over Alexander Volkov, has a 13-2 record, moves around the Octagon like a welterweight, has incredible footwork, and only has losses to Jon Jones, greatest fighter of all time, and Francis Ngannou,” Dave detailed. He sees the fight as far from a sure thing for Aspinall. “I am not convinced that that’s a slam-dunk fight for Tom Aspinall. I think that’s a very winnable fight for Ciryl Gane.”
Dave even suggested a scenario where a Gane victory would silence the critics who claim Jones is ducking Aspinall. “Where would the Jon Jones haters be then?” he asked. “Where would the guy say he’s ducking Aspinall, he’s scared of Aspinall, if Ciryl Gane just beats Aspinall?”
UFC 316: Full Card Predictions
The crew shifted gears to the weekend’s pay-per-view, offering their analysis and picks for the main card fights.
Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2
The hosts were unanimous in their prediction for the bantamweight title rematch. After Merab’s dominant win in their first encounter, it’s hard to see the outcome changing. Fred Garcia is confident in the champion, but warned him not to take O’Malley lightly. “You have to take Sean O’Malley seriously, and you’ve got to treat him as a credible threat,” he said. Still, his pick was clear: “I got ‘Merab’ by decision again, probably like 50-43, something like that.”
AJ D’Alesio, who often supports O’Malley, had to go with the stats. He noted that O’Malley had personal issues and an injury heading into the first fight, which was reflected in his performance. He pointed out that O’Malley threw only 89 significant strikes against Merab, compared to nearly 356 in his fight against Chito Vera. However, Merab’s recent victory over Umar Nurmagomedov sealed the deal for AJ. “Because of what I saw with Umar, it was enough for me to realize that, you know, ‘Merab’ is the real deal,” he conceded.
Dave agreed with his co-hosts. “I think this fight goes the distance again. I’ve got Merab, unanimous decision, once again. Same result.”
Co-Main Event: Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison
The co-main event presents a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, and the odds reflect that, with Kayla Harrison being a massive favorite. AJ and Fred see this as Harrison’s fight to lose. “Harrison, in my opinion, is probably more dangerous than an Amanda in her prime,” AJ claimed, acknowledging the threat Harrison poses. The only variable for him is the challenging weight cut for the former PFL champion. “The only thing that worries me, guys, is the weight cut for Harrison. That’s the only thing that bothers me,” he admitted.
Fred believes Harrison will secure a “dominant decision.” But Dave Simon, never one to shy away from a bold underdog pick, is calling for a huge upset. “Julianna by knockout, round two,” he proclaimed confidently. Despite the others’ skepticism, Dave is sticking with his pick, believing Peña can defend the takedowns and win on the feet. “She is going to keep it at boxing range. She is going to land punches. Kayla is going to get rattled, and she’s gonna get stopped.”
More Main Card Breakdowns
- Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer: The hosts see this as a showcase for Joe Pyfer in his home state of New Jersey. Dave called it a “coming-out party” for the rising middleweight. While Fred acknowledged that “Gastelum could always surprise you,” the consensus was that a victory was Pyfer’s.
- Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland: This fight had the hosts disagreeing. Dave and Fred were stunned to see Luque as the underdog. “I’m amazed he’s the underdog,” Dave said. Both picked Luque, with Fred adding him to his parlay. AJ, however, sided with the favorite, Kevin Holland. “His reach is going to be the difference against Vincent Luque,” AJ predicted.
- Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix: The opening fight on the main card features the UFC debut of Bellator champion Patchy Mix. Fred is taking the UFC veteran, picking “Mario Bautista on my parlay, man.” AJ is going with the newcomer. “I mean, if anything can happen, Pachi Mix can submit Bautista,” he said.
The Official Ringside Report Parlays
Here’s where the hosts are putting their money for UFC 316.
| Host | Pick 1 | Pick 2 | Pick 3 | Pick 4 | Pick 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Garcia | Vicente Luque | Mario Bautista | Merab Dvalishvili | ||
| Dave Simon | Merab Dvalishvili | Vicente Luque | Azamat Murzakanov | ||
| AJ D’Alesio | Kevin Holland | Patchy Mix | Joe Pyfer | Kayla Harrison | Merab Dvalishvili |
Ringside Banter: Nintendo, Baseball, and Bizarre Choices
The episode wasn’t all serious fight analysis. It kicked off with Dave unboxing his new Nintendo Switch 2, much to the amusement of his co-hosts. The conversation later took a historical turn, revisiting the bizarre Dream Super Hulk Tournament from 2009, which featured baseball slugger Jose Canseco, Bob Sapp, and Gegard Mousasi. “So if Jose had been successful, there was a chance that we could have seen Gagard Musasi versus Jose Canseco, which would have been sick, you know?” Dave reminisced.
Perhaps the most memorable tangent was a debate over a hypothetical choice: would you rather take a kick to the groin or an eye poke? “Look, I’d rather get a dick kick than, like, an eye poke. Let’s be honest,” AJ stated. Dave agreed, saying, “I want to keep vision. I’d like to see. So I’m good, I guess. I’ll take the dick kick, I suppose.” Fred, however, had a different priority: “My dick’s pretty good, man. I wanna keep my good dick.” His choice? “So you’re taking the eye poke?”
The Final Bell
The heavyweight title picture remains as murky as ever, with Jon Jones’s future intentions keeping the division in a holding pattern. The consensus from the Ringside Report MMA crew is that Tom Aspinall should move on and face Cyril Gane to keep things moving. At UFC 316, the hosts are mainly aligned, predicting dominant wins for champions Merab Dvalishvili and Kayla Harrison, although Dave Simon is holding out for a massive upset from Julianna Peña. The welterweight and middleweight matchups provide intriguing betting opportunities, with the hosts split on the outcome of several key fights.
