UFC 2026 Champion Predictions: Why Arman Tsarukyan Finally Gets His Title Shot

The first Ringside Report MMA of 2026 delivered exactly what fans expected: honest analysis, bold predictions, and a healthy dose of UFC criticism. Dave Simon and Fred Garcia returned from the holiday break to break down their UFC 2026 predictions across every division—and to face the uncomfortable truth about how badly they missed in 2025.

With AJ D’Alesio absent (his son Kaden was under the weather), Dave and Fred had to confront their prediction scorecard alone. The results weren’t pretty. AJ dominated with four correct picks, Dave managed two, and Fred limped to the finish with just one. As Dave put it: “It did happen because I’m looking at ringsidereport.net—that’s real information you’re getting there.”

But dwelling on the past isn’t the Ringside way. The hosts dove straight into their UFC 2026 predictions, and what emerged was a fascinating mix of cautious favorites and swing-for-the-fences longshots.

The 2025 Predictions Autopsy: AJ D’Alesio Wins by Knockout

Before making new picks, Dave and Fred had to face the music on their 2025 predictions. The carnage was significant.

“AJ might win like the year,” Dave admitted early. “AJ was right on a lot of things. How is he not here for this?”

The scorecard told the brutal story. At heavyweight, Fred and Dave both backed Jon Jones, who technically never lost but vacated the title, while AJ correctly picked Tom Aspinall. At light heavyweight, Dave and Fred rode with Magomed Ankalaev, who won the belt early in 2025 only to lose it back to Alex Pereira later in the year. AJ had Pereira all along.

“Pereira knocked the shit out of him, though,” Dave recalled of Ankalaev’s loss. “That was crazy.”

Dave’s lone winning pick came at middleweight, where he and AJ correctly predicted Khamzat Chimaev would capture gold. Fred had Dricus Du Plessis holding on—wrong.

The welterweight division exposed everyone. Islam Makhachev moved up from 155 and captured the belt, something nobody predicted. Dave and AJ had Shavkat Rakhmonov; Fred stuck with Belal Muhammad. All wrong.

“Hot potato with the welterweight title in 2025,” Dave noted.

Both hosts got Kayla Harrison correct at women’s bantamweight—their only shared success. Everything else? Wreckage.

UFC 2026 Predictions: Heavyweight Division

The heavyweight picture is murky, with Tom Aspinall dealing with eye issues and rumors swirling about an interim title fight between Ciryl Gane and Alex Pereira.

Fred’s Pick: Ciryl Gane Dave’s Pick: Ciryl Gane

“I’m gonna take a chance on Ciryl Gane,” Fred explained. “He seemed to do okay in those early moments of that fight versus Aspinall. He’s a big guy; he could hold his own.”

Dave agreed, noting the path to the championship is clear for Gane: beat Pereira for the interim belt, then potentially rematch Aspinall later in the year.

“I think Ciryl matches up really well against Aspinall,” Dave said. “Not just because of how well he was doing in that short amount of time in that fight they had, but matchup-wise. I think he gives him a lot of problems if they do have a proper fight.”

The hosts also debated whether Jon Jones would return in 2026.

“Who do you think is more likely to fight in 2026—Jones or Conor?” Dave asked.

“I’ll say, Jones,” Fred replied, though both acknowledged Dana White seems more confident about McGregor returning.

Light Heavyweight: The Annual Ankalaev Debate

This division produced the only disagreement of the night at the top of the card.

Fred’s Pick: Alex Pereira Dave’s Pick: Magomed Ankalaev

Fred believes Pereira stays at 205 and continues to dominate, even if he takes a heavyweight fight.

“Him going up to heavyweight should not stop him from going back to light heavyweight,” Fred reasoned. “I’m gonna stick with Pereira.”

Dave, meanwhile, continues his annual tradition of picking Ankalaev—and continues to believe it’ll eventually pay off.

“I pick him every year,” Dave admitted. “I almost had it this year. 365 days is a long time for things to happen. I got Magomed. I think he’s the next best light heavyweight outside of Alex Pereira, and I do think that other mega fights—whether it’s Jon Jones, Tom Aspinall, or Ciryl Gane—are gonna draw Pereira away from the light heavyweight championship, and Magomed is gonna swoop in and become champion.”

UFC 2026 Middleweight: The Easy Call

This was the quickest pick of the night.

Fred’s Pick: Khamzat Chimaev Dave’s Pick: Khamzat Chimaev

“I think we’re gonna pick the same guy, and it’s Khamzat,” Dave said.

“Yeah, Khamzat,” Fred agreed. “Unless he’s sick in some way and has to take time off. That only scares me—Khamzat. Other than that, I don’t see anybody.”

Dave noted Nassourdine Imavov appears to be the next challenger, but neither host sees anyone beating Chimaev when healthy.

Welterweight: Islam Stays on Top

With Islam Makhachev now ruling 170 pounds, the hosts see no change coming.

Fred’s Pick: Islam Makhachev Dave’s Pick: Islam Makhachev

“I’ll go with Makhachev,” Fred said. “He might only have one fight in 2026, and if it’s Usman, it’s gonna be a win. I’m not convinced Shavkat is getting that fight in 2026.”

Dave lamented the lack of a title shot against Shavkat Rakhmonov, even recounting a video game session that gave him pause.

“I played this challenge match on the UFC video game on PlayStation—it was Shavkat against Islam on hard mode—and Islam kicked my ass,” Dave said. “I was like, maybe Shavkat wouldn’t win this fight. He got taken down a lot.”

Still, Dave believes the Shavkat-Islam matchup is the most compelling fight at 170: “That’s like the most compelling matchup for Islam at 170. Kamaru Usman is an absolute joke. I don’t want to see that fight.”

Lightweight: Arman Tsarukyan Finally Gets His Due

This pick came with significant frustration at the UFC’s Q1 2026 booking.

Fred’s Pick: Arman Tsarukyan Dave’s Pick: Arman Tsarukyan

The hosts were bewildered that Justin Gaethje—37 years old and 3-2 in his last five—is fighting Paddy Pimblett for the interim lightweight title at UFC 324.

“Arman Tsarukyan—that’s gonna be my champion at the end of the year for that title,” Fred declared.

“He should be fighting for the title,” Dave agreed. “But he’s not. It’s Justin Gaethje, who’s 37 years old and has gone 3-2 in his last five fights.”

The Ilia Topuria situation complicated matters. The double champion is stepping away from fighting due to a difficult divorce.

“He’s going through a hard divorce,” Fred explained. “His focus is not there. He wants to concentrate on fighting to get his kids.”

Dave found the situation unusual: “That’s something we don’t see very often in MMA. Usually when guys take time off, it’s because they’re injured—not because they’re going through a divorce and custody battle, especially in the prime of their career when they’re world champion.”

Featherweight: Betting on the Undefeated

The hosts split here, but both backed undefeated fighters being overlooked by the UFC.

Fred’s Pick: Movsar Evloev Dave’s Pick: Lerone Murphy

“I’m gonna go with Movsar Evloev,” Fred said. “He’s undefeated. I’m a fan of Volkanovski—he might be the greatest featherweight of all time—but I think he’s old. If Movsar gets his title shot, he’ll get it done.”

Dave went with Murphy, noting that both fighters share the same frustration.

“Movsar is 19-0. The UFC’s rankings have him ranked number one contender, but he’s not getting the fight,” Dave said. “He just beat Aljamain Sterling. How do you not give this guy a title shot? He’s fighting Lerone Murphy on March 21st—another guy who’s been doing really well. I’m gonna go with Murphy to be my featherweight champion.”

UFC 2026 Bantamweight: The Petr Yan Era?

Petr Yan’s title win over Merab Dvalishvili set up an interesting split.

Fred’s Pick: Merab Dvalishvili Dave’s Pick: Petr Yan

“I’m still a Merab believer,” Fred said. “He’ll be back.”

Dave wasn’t so sure: “I liked what I saw from Petr Yan. Yan is younger—he’s 32. Merab is a little older at 34. I’m gonna lean towards Yan. I say Yan holds on. This will be Petr Yan’s year—couple title defenses.”

The hosts joked about the inevitable controversy over the Sean O’Malley rematch.

“He’ll fight Petr Yan, everybody in the world will think Petr Yan won, and then for some reason they’ll give the belt to O’Malley at the end of the night,” Dave predicted. “Just like the last time.”

Flyweight: New Blood Rising

Both hosts agree Joshua Van’s reign might be short-lived.

Fred’s Pick: Tatsuro Taira Dave’s Pick: Manel Kape

“Out of all the divisions we just did, I feel this one might be the one where we might be surprised,” Fred admitted. “Van is an excellent fighter, but are we really confident he’s that dominant? I’m gonna take a chance on Tatsuro Taira—18-1, he’ll end up getting a shot.”

Dave initially picked Van but changed his mind mid-discussion.

“Can I switch my pick? I’m gonna switch. I think the champion at the end of the year is gonna be Manel Kape,” Dave said. “That guy hits hard. Like, crazy hard. He’s knocking people out. He crushed Brandon Royval in like three minutes. I think they’re gonna push him for a title shot because he’s exciting.”

Women’s Divisions: UFC 2026 Dominant Champions

The women’s divisions produced rare unanimity.

Women’s Bantamweight:

• Fred’s Pick: Kayla Harrison
• Dave’s Pick: Kayla Harrison

“Kayla’s been on such a run,” Fred noted. “She looks like a monster physically. She looks like she could destroy everybody.”

The Harrison vs. Amanda Nunes fight at UFC 324 drew significant attention, with Dave calling it “one of the most important historically all-time fights in the history of women’s MMA”—which made its co-main event status baffling.

Women’s Flyweight:

• Fred’s Pick: Valentina Shevchenko
• Dave’s Pick: Valentina Shevchenko

“I don’t see anybody beating Valentina right now,” Dave said. “The way she completely disposed of Zhang Weili—who I thought was gonna be her toughest challenge—she’s beaten everybody.”

Fred agreed: “This year has been a year of redemption for her. She’s been really dominating. I gotta go with Valentina.”

Women’s Strawweight:

• Fred’s Pick: Zhang Weili
• Dave’s Pick: Zhang Weili

“Zhang Weili is going to bounce back, go back down to 115, and take that belt from Mackenzie Dern in 2026,” Dave predicted. “And once she does, I don’t think anybody beats Zhang Weili at 115 pounds.”

Dave’s Scathing UFC Q1 2026 Critique

Beyond the 2025 predictions, Dave delivered one of his trademark rants about the UFC’s first-quarter booking.

“First quarter of 2026, the UFC is not giving you the best guy against the second-best guy one time,” Dave said. “UFC 324 is Gaethje versus Paddy for an interim belt. UFC 325 is Volkanovski versus Lopes. UFC 326 is Holloway versus Oliveira for the BMF title—that’s not even a real title. UFC 327 doesn’t have a main event currently.”

The Harrison-Nunes situation particularly irked him.

“It’s the most legitimate fight they’re doing all first quarter 2026,” Dave continued. “It’s one of the most important all-time fights in the history of women’s MMA and MMA in general. You have the best of all time coming out of retirement to fight the current champion—an absolute beast. Tremendous fight. And it’s a co-main event. It’s the only real fight the UFC is doing in the first three months of the year, and it’s a co-main event. It’s absurd.”

The Complete UFC 2026 Predictions Scoreboard

The hosts agreed on 8 of 11 divisions—an unusual level of consensus that reflects either deep knowledge or shared blind spots. We’ll find out in December.

“I wonder what AJ would have said,” Dave mused at the end. Probably something different—and probably right.