UFC 117 takes place Saturday, August 7 in Oakland, California and features a main event of Anderson Silva defending his middleweight title against Chael Sonnen. Roy Nelson and Junior Dos Santos will battle for a shot at the winner of the Brock Lesnar- Cain Velasquez heavyweight title match set for October. Jon Fitch and Thiago Alves will also supposedly be fighting for a title shot against either GSP or Josh Koscheck, even though Alves failed to make weight for this bout. The following is my preview and predictions for UFC 117. I went 6-5 in my selections for UFC 117 and 6-4 for UFC on Versus 2.
Ben Saunders (8-2) -260 v. Dennis Hallman (41-13) +200 (Welterweight-170lbs.)
Ben Saunders is a brown belt in BJJ and trains with American Top Team. He is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Jon Fitch in March of this year. Saunders was knocked out by Fitch’s AKA teammate, Mike Swick, for the other loss of his career in June of 2009. In between those two losses, Saunders knocked out Marcus Davis with a knee strike.
Dennis Hallman is a 34 year old who began competing in MMA in 1997. Hallman defeated Matt Hughes via submission in 1998 and 2000 but lost to Frank Trigg via TKO in 2004. Hallman is a journeyman fighter who spent time in the IFL, KOTC and Strikeforce. Hallman fought sporadically for the UFC throughout his career, losing to Jorge Rivera in 2005 and not returning to the promotion until his December 2009 KO loss to John Howard.
Saunders is 27 years old and a lanky fighter who has displayed some very good knee striking abilities. Saunders should be able to out-strike the older and shorter Hallman. Dennis Hallman was knocked out in his last fight and has won 33 of his 41 via submission. Saunders’ jiu-jitsu should be good enough to defend any submission and his striking will help him score the knockout. Ben Saunders via TKO Round 1 or 2
Stefan Struve (19-4) -185 v. Christian Morecraft (6-0) +155 (Heavyweight-265 lbs.)
Stefan “The Skyscraper” Struve is a Dutch fighter who is coming off a knockout loss to Roy Nelson. He has gone 3-2 in the UFC with his other loss via KO to Junior Dos Santos. Struve is a former pro kickboxer that also has good submission skills with 14 of his 19 wins coming via tap-out. Struve is only 22 year old and one of the tallest in the UFC at 6 ft. 11 in.
Christian Morecraft is also a tall heavyweight at 6 ft. 8 in. but could be heavier than Struve, tipping the scales at the 265 lbs. mark. Morecraft will be making his UFC debut after winning 3 by TKO and 3 by submission in local Massachusetts MMA shows.
Struve is listed as the favourite in this fight but only slightly as little is known about his undefeated opponent. Morecraft could make a real name for himself by defeating Stefan Struve but Struve wants to rebound off a high profile loss. Morecraft will need to keep this fight standing to win and avoid the long legs and dangerous guard of Stefan Struve. Morecraft has shown some powerful punches and is yet to be defeated but the smart bet in on Stefan Struve. I’ve got Stefan Struve to win via submission or decision even though the unknown Morecraft could pull off the upset KO.
Johny Hendricks (8-0) -525 v. Charlie Brenneman (11-1) +325 (Welterweight-170lbs.)
Johny Hendricks is an accomplished collegiate wrestler at OSU who has gone 3-0 in the UFC with wins over Amir Sadollah, Ricardo Funch and TJ Grant. The 26 year old now trains in Las Vegas at Xtreme Couture and has 4 of his 8 wins via TKO.
Charlie Brenneman is a 29 year old riding a 6 fight win streak including his UFC debut in March of this year in a unanimous decision against Jason High. Brenneman was a collegiate wrestler but not at NCAA division 1 level like Hendricks. He has 5 of his wins via TKO with 5 by decision. His lone loss was to fellow UFC fighter John Howard, via decision in 2008.
Johny Hendricks is a heavy favourite in this fight and should be able to out-wrestle his way to victory. The striking game of both men will be a big factor in this fight. If Brenneman can be a better boxer or kickboxer, he could win this fight. Hendricks should be able to neutralize any part of Brenneman’s game by utilizing his wrestling and controlling the pace of this bout. Johny Hendricks via decision
Tim Boetsch (11-3) v. Todd Brown (11-1) (Light-Heavyweight-205 lbs.)
Tim Boetsch makes his return to the UFC, stepping in as a late replacement for Thiago Silva in this fight. Boetsch went 2-2 in the UFC and was cut following a decision loss to Jason Brilz. Boetsch has racked up 3 straight wins outside of the UFC including a KO in his last fight. 6 of his 11 wins come via knockout.
Todd Brown will be making his UFC debut. He is a Michigan based fighter with 6 of his 11 wins coming via submission.
Todd Brown was supposed to fight Thiago Silva, a much tougher opponent than Tim Boetsch. If the UFC felt Brown was ready for Silva, chances are that he can beat Tim Boetsch. That’s why I’m picking Todd Brown via TKO, decision or submission
Phil Davis (6-0) -800 v. Rodney Wallace (9-2) +500
Phil Davis is an undefeated fighter coming off a submission win over then-undefeated Alexander Gustaffson. Davis won that fight in April of this year and steps in as a replacement for Stanislav Nedkov in this bout. Davis is a former NCAA division 1 national wrestling champion at 197 lbs. and has shown the ability to win fights with his striking or grappling skills.
Rodney Wallace won 9 in a row before entering the UFC and losing two straight decisions to Brian Stann and Jared Hamman. Wallace has 6 of his 9 wins via decision and was an NCAA division 2 football player.
Phil Davis has shown to be an exceptional athlete and possible future star in MMA. There is a very good reason why is he is such a heavy favourite and that is because he is better than his opponent. Phil Davis wins this fight 99 times out of 100 and will leave Rodney Wallace wishing Stanislav Nedkov had never been injured. Phil Davis via submission or knockout
Dustin Hazelett (13-4) -120 v. Rick Story (10-3) -110 (Welterweight-170 lbs.)
Dustin Hazelett is coming off a KO loss to Paul Daley in January of this year. The 24 year old has very good submission skills but has struggled against superior striking. Hazelett is a BJJ black belt under Jorge Gurgel and trains with him in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Rick Story is coming off 3 straight wins in the UFC following his split-decision win over Nick Osipczak in April of this year. The 25 year old has a collegiate wrestling background with 5 of his 10 wins coming via decision.
This is a very tough fight to call as displayed by the odds. Dustin Hazelett has very slick jiu-jitsu while Story is a good wrestler with decent striking ability. I think Dustin Hazelett may be able to pull of a submission and win this fight. If the fight goes in Story’s direction it will most likely be a decision win for him due to his wrestling. I do think that the grappling-heavy fight scenario could favour “McLovin” which is why I’m picking Dustin Hazelett via submission
Roy Nelson (15-4) +250 v. Junior Dos Santos (11-1) -325 (Heavyweight-265 lbs.)
Roy Nelson is the 34 year old winner of The Ultimate Fighter season 10. The 6 foot, former IFL champion is riding a 2 fight win streak in the UFC, including his knockout win over Stefan Struve in March. Nelson has shown to be a powerful puncher and is also a Brazilian-Jiu-jitsu black belt. Nelson has lost 3 times in his career via decision and was knocked out by Andrei Arlovksi in 2008.
Junior “Cigano” Dos Santos is a 25 year old knockout artist from Brazil. He stands 6 ft. 4 in. and is riding a 6 fight win streak including victories over Mirko Cro Cop, Fabricio Werdum and Gabriel Gonzaga. 8 of Cigano’s 11 wins come via TKO or KO and he is undefeated in the UFC.
Junior Dos Santos and Roy Nelson are both fighters that have made names in the UFC by knocking people out. Both men have good jiu-jitsu skills but also possess great power in their hands. Junior Dos Santos has never been knocked out and will have a height and reach advantage over his opponent. Roy Nelson should look to take this fight to the mat and apply his crucifix position to pound out Dos Santos as he did to Kimbo Slice on TUF. Dos Santos ha far better grappling abilities than Slice and should be able to avoid that position. Dos Santos may be able to avoid a takedown altogether and score a quick knockout over Roy Nelson.In the end, Dos Santos’ punches should be too much for Nelson and the speed that youth brings may be a key factor in that respect. Junior Dos Santos via TKO or KO Round 1 or 2
Matt Hughes (44-7) +130 v. Ricardo Almeida (12-3) -160 (Welterweight- 170lbs.)
Matt Hughes is a 36 year old UFC hall of famer and former UFC welterweight champion. Hughes is coming off two straight wins in the UFC over Matt Serra and Renzo Gracie in April. Hughes decided to take this fight so quickly to have the fall off for hunting season. Hughes competed in the ADCC submission wrestling world championship and scored a win over Ricardo Almeida.
Almeida is coming off his fight at welterweight, defeating Matt Brown in March of this year. Almeida is a 3rd degree BJJ black belt under Renzo Gracie and has career wins over Nate Marquardt, Ikuhisa Minowa and Kendall Grove.
Ricardo Almeida is the favourite in this fight because of how strong he looked against Matt Brown. Almeida looked far more devastating at welterweight than he had at middleweight and beat up Brown en route to a rear-naked choke. The hype around this fight has Almeida out for revenge after Hughes defeated his teacher, Renzo Gracie. Almeida and Hughes both affirmed at the pre-fight press conference that there is no bad blood between the two camps and this fight is just a new challenge for both competitors. Matt Hughes’ striking looked slow and predicable against Renzo Gracie and that should be his downfall in this bout. I expect Ricardo Almeida to overwhelm Matt Hughes with his striking and come out the winner. Ricardo Almeida via TKO or submission
Clay Guida (26-11) -130 v. Rafael Dos Anjos (14-4) even
Clay Guida is coming off a submission win over Shannon Gugerty in March. He is a gritty fighter with a good chin, good striking and wrestling ability. Guida can contend with the top competition at 155 lbs. in the UFC but struggled in back-to-back losses to Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez.
Rafael Dos Anjos looked impressive pulling off an arm-bar submission over Terry Etim is April and is riding a 3 fight win streak. Dos Anjos has struggled against tough competition with a decision loss to Tyson Griffin and a KO loss to Jeremy Stephens.
With all the punishment Clay Guida has absorbed it’s a miracle he has never been stopped via KO or TKO. Guida is looking to get his career back on track and a decisive win on this card could be just what he needs. Clay Guida is a very tough guy who should be able to use his boxing and wrestling to win this fight. Guida is a tougher striker and his wrestling ability should help him keep the fight standing. Dos Anjos needs to look for a submission but it will be tough to ground the resilient Guida. Clay Guida via TKO, decision or submission
Jon Fitch (22-3) -115 v. Thiago Alves (16-6) -115 (catch-weight of 171.5 lbs.)
Jon Fitch is a 32 year old fighter, riding a 4 fight win streak in the UFC since losing his title shot via unanimous decision to Georges St-Pierre. Fitch has wins in the UFC over Diego Sanchez, Paulo Thiago and his next opponent, Thiago Alves. Fitch defeated Alves in 2006 in a 2nd round TKO. Fitch has taken criticism for a “boring” fight style with 12 of his 22 wins coming via decision.
Thiago Alves has not fought since a July 2009 title shot against GSP that he lost via unanimous decision. Alves has not competed since that loss, with minor brain surgery keeping him out of action. Alves was unable to cut down to 171 lbs. for this bout, the second time in his UFC career that he has failed to make weight.
This fight is supposed to determine a new number 1 contender for either Georges St-Pierre or Josh Koscheck. Thiago Alves has improved since 2006 but has shown a weakness for defending the takedown. The fact that Alves has not competed in over a year and failed to make weight for this bout may speak to his lack of conditioning. If Alves is not prepared to make weight, what else is he unprepared for? Jon Fitch should be able to use his wrestling and grind out another victory but it may not be overly entertaining. Jon Fitch via unanimous decision
Anderson Silva (26-4)-500 v. Chael Sonnen (24-10) +300 (Middleweight Championship-185 lbs.)
Anderson Silva is riding a 12 fight win streak and is looking to defend his championship for a UFC record seventh time. Silva defended his title to set the new record at six when he defeated Demian Maia in April in a unanimous decision. Silva has defeated Dan Henderson, Nate Marquardt and Rich Franklin and has 15 of his 26 wins via TKO or KO.
Chael Sonnen is a 33 year old American fighter with a very strong wrestling base, wrestling for the University of Oregon and placing as an alternate in Greco-Roman wrestling on the U.S. Olympic team. Sonnen has won 3 in a row in the UFC, defeating Nate Marquardt via unanimous decision in February to earn his title shot.
Anderson Silva’s motivation has been questioned in fights against Thales Leites and Demian Maia. Both Leites and Maia were BJJ-based fighters who did not engage Silva to the extent that Sonnen will. Chael Sonnen is going to attempt to use his wrestling to take Silva down to the mat and grind his way to a victory. Anderson Silva did show that he was vulnerable to a take-down in his fight with Dan Henderson, but he also showed that he can come back in a fight and obliterate a top-level opponent in the second round. Anderson Silva appears angry and motivated for this fight which is a dangerous situation for Sonnen to find himself in. Anderson Silva took criticism after his fight with Thales Leites but bounced back with a stupefying performance over Forrest Griffin in his next bout. Look for Anderson Silva to come back strong and make Sonnen eat his words. Anderson Silva via knockout
by Dave Simon
